Can someone tell me in a few words (couple of sentences) why we won't be able to get insulin etc. I read comments here over my lunch break and a bit in the evenings so have got the time to read an excessive amount.
Also a lack of fresh food seems an exaggerated statement. NO fresh food - really! Diets resulting in cv disease are diets that have higher calorie foods, such as meat, cheese and snack foods. Even if we import no fresh food at all, there will be some grown / produced in UK. I'm 69 and have lived in 4 different counties and there's always been markets selling UK food.
Back to lunch. Will catch up on the short replies to my comments later. No doubt someone will lambast me.
I promised myself I would read or contribute to anymore BREXIT postings. I've lasted about a week.
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If we leave without a deal what will happen to the supply of food in the UK
(169 Posts)An article in the Lancet starts "All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others" It looks a four different scenarios . " ... a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal; a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020; the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period; or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU."
It tells us that they have found that, although all forms involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement.
It discusses difficulties in recruiting medical staff which they see as the most challenging area. It goes on to illuminate the issues with financing health care, saying "The only aspect of NHS financing after Brexit in which we can expect no change is for reciprocal health care under the Withdrawal Agreement. Obviously even this goes if we are unable to reach a deal and just drop out. It then looks at all other aspects of NHS where, they say, financing is negatively affected under all Leave outcomes.
"Ceasing of this system will have major consequences for older UK residents, especially if they have pre-existing conditions, because insurance cover, which might not be available for those with the most severe conditions, could be extremely expensive." Some other groups will be particularly affected, such as patients on dialysis who benefit from provisions that allow them to receive it in centres in other member states."
They looked at the consensus of economic reports and noted that the outcomes suggested in those reports - of a negative impact on the economy - have been borne out. They point out that forecasting is always difficult but in the case of Brexit is it more so.
"As one of the largest areas of public expenditure, any negative impact on the UK economy will put additional pressure on NHS financing ..."
The paper also looks at other areas which will have an effect on health. Food supply (there was an interview about this on "Today, R4, this morning) because of our overwhelming importing of fresh fruit and vegetables.
"... a modelling study estimated that a No-Deal Brexit could lead to between 6000 and 23 000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease between 2021 and 2030."
There was a great deal more of course. You can read the article (if you register) here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30425-8/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3NrFJwWrGUD-P0BZcq51fo9KApsEJdToJvvYI2kPOBkC5n38JzpT0BXJ4
Why so militant ?? I was just stating a fact that there'll be no shortage of anything.
I didn't say we'd be subjected to rationing ( rolls eyes )
We will hopefully get back to eating with the seasons and becoming a nation of slim and heathy people. Got to be good
____my GC are grown adults. I have GGC who I know will receive any form of treatment should the need arise.
You really don't understand do you EllanV. Who has told you stocks are high? Where are you getting your information from and why do you think this source - or you - know more than those whose job it is to know.
You are not "getting on with it"! You are not making drugs in your kitchen and there is a limit to what fruit and vegetables you can grow. If the source of what we get dries up why do you think you will be first in the queue?
The systems that bring most of these items into the country has taken 40 years to make it work as smoothly as it does. If we drop out with no deal overnight that will stop. Just how do those who need these drugs "get on with it" if they are not there? Just how can we eat healthily if the food is either not coming in or is an exorbitant price.
How do you think people will feel about those who have put us in this position? Unlike you, the government obviously knows this could happen as the are preparing for civil unrest.
I cannot work out how you process information. It seems to me you are prepared to ignore anything you don't want to know about.
EllanV 'who I know will receive any form of treatment should the need arise.'
please could you share your magic formula.
Actually mine will too - if necessary they will just come and live with us here- as they have dual nationality. They also have very expensive private health care in the UK. But I would never ever dream of making the callous, horrible comments you made. Vile.
growstuff
Nothing attractive about wars both one and two. We had to get on with it, and, get on with it we did.
I gather you weren't around when food was rationed. (Mon 05-Aug-19 13:25:12)
We were at war when food was rationed. We didn't vote for our convoys to be attacked and for half our population to be fighting elsewhere. What world are you living in? Were you an older adult at that time?
We have built up these amazing trade treaties and you want to destroy them. Destroying them means we will not have the benefit of them. Things will stop working the way they have. How on earth do you think sick, ill and elderly or very young people can counter that?
Are you seriously suggesting that we would drop out, refuse to pay our bills and all would continue as it has for the past 40 years?
I have GGC who I know will receive any form of treatment should the need arise. (Mon 05-Aug-19 13:43:10)
How do you know that EllanVannin? Are you intending to move country? Or are you so incredibly rich that you will buy what you need on the black market? If it isn't there your GGC will not be able to have it will they.
I think that any one who is not worried doesn't care to read the detail. This article is from the Lancet. Hardly given to scare mongering.
WOODMOUSE49 Mon 05-Aug-19 13:34:44
No one said there would be no fresh food.
If you are prepared to PM me an email address I will send you a PDF copy of the report.
All I can see from where I'm sitting are empty vessels ! Those who create and shout the loudest aren't always right you know and however much you pontificate on how " bad things are going to be " nobody will take a blind bit of notice.
We're not a 3rd world country and nobody is going to go without.
So long as you keep reading your newspapers and the propaganda that emanates from them then you're on your own, as some sections of the media revel in propaganda.
I'll believe all this " fake news " when I see it happen.
We will hopefully get back to eating with the seasons and becoming a nation of slim and heathy people. Got to be good. (Mon 05-Aug-19 13:42:44)
There speaks an expert! Craftyone I put on quite a bit of weight which I have now lost. It was not through over-eating but through two conditions now kept in order by the very medication you don't seem to care whether people get or not.
Just how inane can the Brexiters comments get? Why not be honest. You don't care who lives or dies, what actually happens to our economy or standard of living, just as long as you get what you want.
The Lancet is a very conservative medical magazine- much more so in so many ways than the BMJ.
However, please could you explain how you can be so sure that 'who I know will receive any form of treatment should the need arise.' Do they live abroad perhaps? Even very expensive private healthcare (that my DDs and GCs have) cannot ensure that.
So long as you keep reading your newspapers and the propaganda that emanates from them ... (Mon 05-Aug-19 14:13:04)
Do you have any idea what The Lancet is EllanVannin? Just to give you an idea here are three recent papers it's published.
Developments in high-throughput microbial genomic sequencing and other systems biology techniques have given novel insight into the potential contribution of the gut microbiota to health and disease.
Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, characterised by maternal pruritus and increased serum bile acid concentrations, is associated with increased rates of stillbirth, preterm birth, and neonatal unit admission. Ursodeoxycholic acid is widely used as a treatment without an adequate evidence base.
Atrial fibrillation is frequently asymptomatic and thus under detected but is associated with stroke, heart failure, and death. Existing screening methods require prolonged monitoring and are limited by cost and low yield.
These are the authors of the paper I have been quoting (paper, in this case, is the name given to a piece of academic research, not something akin to the Daily Mail).
Nick Fahy, DPhil
Tamara Hervey, PhD
Scott Greer, PhD
Holly Jarman, PhD
David Stuckler, PhD
Mike Galsworthy, PhD
Prof Martin McKee, DSc
It would really take someone of very little knowledge to compare this to newspapers that emanate propaganda. All papers submitted to the Lancet are peer-reviewed. That is they are read, scrutinised and reviewed by scholars of equal or greater eminence.
It would be nice, occasionally, if Brexiters admitted they don't know what they are talking about but they are going to go for it anyway - whoever it damages in the process.
But we didn't CHOOSE to go to war.
PS. There were plenty of people who didn't survive both wars. Why oh why would anybody half sane want to impose war-time conditions on the country?
There's nothing noble about having to "get on with it".
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori" (not!)
The Lancet is subscription only to Medical Doctors:
Our manifesto
Highest standards for medical science
The Lancet sets extremely high standards. We select only the best research papers for their quality of work and the progression they bring.
Improving lives is the only end goal
Too much research is done for research sake. We believe that improving lives is the only end goal and that research is only relevant when it has an impact on human lives.
Increasing the social impact of science
We recognise that a great research paper is not enough and that it requires development, mobilisation, and exposure. So we promise to set agendas, create context, inform leaders, start debates, and advocate for the idea that research can and will make a difference.
WOODMOUSE,
The reason is that there are likely to be delays at Dover and other ports while customs checks are carried out. Even the government acknowledges that, which is one of the reasons over £2bn has been allocated for extra staff, shipping and warehousing. Heaven knows where they're going to find 5,000 staff at such notice, but ho hum! Remember the contract that was awarded to a company without ships? :-(
Insulin is mentioned so often because it needs to be refrigerated and we just don't have the capacity to stockpile. I understand there are similar problems with radio isotopes for cancer treatment.
It really doesn't take much to disrupt the fresh food supply. Remember the Iceland volcano? At least that was only temporary.
It's all very well saying people should grow their own food, but it's not efficient to grow some foodstuffs in the UK, we don't have the land, it takes to cultivate and we're not going to have the people to work in the fields.
But - hey - Dominic Raab didn't even realise that Dover is so important! You really couldn't make it up!
The EU has been producing plans for ages - even the UK government has now realised it needs to make plans.
WOODMOUSE, Higher calorie foods are the cheap ones - potatoes, rice, bread, pastry, pasta, anything thickened with flour/grain, not just those with obvious sugar.
Snack foods aren't necessarily high calorie
EllanVannin, It isn't a fact that there will be no shortages. The only fact is that you just don't know.
(And roll your eyes as much as you like.)
Exactly that, growstuff, you just don't know, I just don't know, no-one knows! So let's just see and stop the scaremongering. It might be the best decision this country's ever made …..
Scaremongering, suppliers here export a lot of stuff to the UK, same in the Netherlands do you really think they are stupid enough to have not already thought about the consequences of brexit and how to deal with it.
In fact the main problems at the moment are coming the other way. My Son-in-laws company has had to stop inporting some British Cheeses, within a week of the referendum the manufacturers had tripled the prices. They blamed brexit, duh !!!!!!!!
The company spoke to their customers who were not prepared to pay the extra and it was too high for them to take the hit.
I take all these reports with a pinch of salt. No one knows what will happen it is all conjecture, bit like a UK mens football team winning the World cup. All hype and hot air.
So stop claiming you know!
Frankly, I'd rather trust people who spent their working lives analysing situations intelligently.
It's not rocket science to work out that if extra customs checks are made at a port like Dover, the flow of imports and exports will slow down. Jeez!
Some people really are stupid enough not to believe there will be problems.
By the way, do you really think Tuvalu will win the football World Cup?
Opal have you never heard of research? We read and learn from the people who know a lot more than we do in one particular area. That is exactly why people on here draw attention to that information. What is it that you believe and what acquired knowledge do you base it on? Just because we start with ignorance of a particular area we do not have to remain that way.
But I can see you just do not believe anyone can lift their ignorance in this area - not even the learned people published in the Lancet. I suppose you don't go to doctors or hospitals either because you are sure you know better than those who are very educated in that area.
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