More people want to leave EU, even Remainers, than before.

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GrannySquare Quote [ For a whatever case scenario risk assessment, I’d expect to see probability & impact alongside. Otherwise it is a meaningless list.] End Quote.

GrannySquare, undoubtedly there would be scenario probability and impact assessments carried out on all aspects of a no-deal leave.

Those risk assessments if carried out correctly will be in numeric form. It would be those figures that would give full information to the British public in regard to the severity of the situation we all face especially at the channel ports and tunnel.

However, I do not expect such documents and figures to be released to the public anytime soon as I believe the section in the Yellowhammer documents on the likelihood of public disorder may well have been based on those numbers.

Aha @growstuff, thank you for the URL.

The sentence below addresses my concerns about the ‘unofficial’ presentation, it is just a text version of the document. I am now less sceptical.

‘I have written as attached to the Rt Hon Hilary Benn to provide to the EU Exit Select Committee the text of Yellowhammer planning assumptions which detailed a reasonable worst case scenario...’

quite @growstuff.

For a whatever case scenario risk assessment, I’d expect to see probability & impact alongside. Otherwise it is a meaningless list.

Yes, there are detailed risk assessments for the UK stacked high on Civil Servants shelves (rather digital files on t’cloud) & that will include Brexit. Yes, there will be disruption & this will be assessed, & plans made to mitigate the impact of the step change any Brexit deal will bring.

I am deeply sceptical of the YellowHammer document.
I see it as a red herring.

GrannySquare The document which is floating round the net is the official release from the government - it's available on the official website.

However, the government has absolutely no intention of releasing the full papers.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831197/Letter_from_the_Chancellor_of_the_Duchy_of_Lancaster_CDL00320.pdf

What the government has issued is the copy which had already been leaked to the Times at the beginning of August. It looks like a version of somebody's notes.

The government has actually given no further information, has changed the heading and redacted part of the document.

First it tried to claim that the leaked document was a fake, which it obviously wasn't, then it tried to claim it was a worse case scenario, rather than a base (and probable) scenario.

Quite frankly, the government is lying through its teeth and attempting a massive cover-up. What could be so awful that it can't let the public know?

What additional knowledge do you now have, which has influenced your decision?

I voted ‘remain’ but, were there a second referendum, I would definitely vote to come out, preferably with a deal.

I now realise that I voted by instinct as my life at that time was in turmoil. However, in calmer times, and with more knowledge, I would not vote the same way.

Nannypink1,
I can understand your feelings, but a No deal which Parliament threw out is very different to Brexit. I was delighted when the Speaker reminded Boris of the facts.
A no deal would put my grandchildren future at risk, hurt millions living below the poverty line. Make many grabbing spivs very rich at the expense of us all.
Sorry, but that is not what I voted for three years ago, I want us to now stay in the UK knowing more of the true facts. Cannot see ANY benefits in leaving, but lots of dangers.

I notice the article is written by one of the most Anti EU papers in the UK. Better known for manipulation and fake journalism than true stories about the EU. Yet, still attracts so many gullible people, as it did in the 30’s with its support once for Hitler.

GrannySquare That went through my mind when I saw it. It really isn't how a risk assessment is usually written and it's very flimsy. Quite obviously, there is a lot more to it. I did see a copy of the official agenda (somebody had taken it on a phone I guess) and clearly more was discussed than what's in the document which was released to the public. It seems like the kind of notes somebody might make for personal use.

I don't agree that acting in the interest of as many people as possible is undemocratic.

Like everyone else I’m sick of the sight of this lot BUT as a leaver I feel it’s totally undemocratic to go against the result of the 2016 referendum...I’m so so angry at the way the remainders in parliament have done everything in their power to stop it ...they don’t want a deal at all they want no Brexit ...our MP voted to remain and has campaigned and voted against Brexit despite us the people in my town voting to leave ...and Bercow should be impartial ...he should just go NOW ...they’re just an undemocratic lot...

Apparently the government has modelled a worst case scenario in a document code named Black Swan, which of course it does not even acknowledge, let alone publish.

Having been forced by parliament to publish Yellowhammer they altered the description "base scenario" to "worst case scenario" and keep describing it as such.

Just another lie.

Remember the Sunday Times hoo-hah about the Hitler Diaries? How many journos in the quality press got suckered into that one?

Nowt to do with Brexit or Hitler.
The point is that people wanted it to be the real thing, for a variety of reasons.

Of course the UK Govt models worst-case scenarios, when do they not? But I’d expect the documentation of any large-scale risk assessment exercise to be well documented to a given standard.

I do not doubt the forecast of worst case upheaval & am concerned as are many, I am just sceptical about the provenance of the summary pages whizzing round on social media.

I am concerned that the Yellowhammer document doing the round looks like it fell of the back of a photocopier. For a Government risk assessment programme documentation, I would expect it to be ‘stamped’ with some formal logo or to have been loaded into a standard document template, maybe quoting sources & links to other relevant documents.

Well I changed my mind, I voted leave, I'd now vote remain. This is based on Brexit directly causing both my children's jobs to be moved from London to other countries in the EU. They are now emigrating to N.Z and Canada.

My friend who is a nurse in the NHS is despairing as EU citizens are leaving the workforce in droves with no-one to replace them. This is happening across the board in the NHS from her experience. Both my MIL and father in their 90's rely heavily on carers and doctors from the EU.

I regret my vote. I regret that the U.K is inevitably going to breakup due to Brexit. We had a strong economy and my sons opinion is we should have left well enough alone and voted remain.

I haven't mentioned my regret to my children though, as I would get a lecture from them as they are very frustrated they have to emigrate. (They are from different industries, one a 'city' worker and the other is in the arts.)

And do you really believe varian that with people like Jen, a teacher for goodness sake, who struggled to know the difference between a vote leave broadcast and a remain one, who relied on Facebook for her information, are going to be any better informed in the run up to another referendum.

There's a huge difference between being ill informed and lacking the wit to choose more reliable sources of information.

It would depend on how many of the 17.4m who voted to leave based their decision only on the means used to subvert votes and the 'lies' from the leave campaign, and if remain had won, how many of them voted due to the doom, gloom and despondency predictions they believed in.

Me too Pantglass I mean her vote appeared to be based on what she read on Facebook and in the media! She was unable to "decipher what was a Vote Leave broadcast and what was not"!

So 72 laws were forced on us, regardless of the benefit of those laws to the UK, I find it hard to equate the EU being democratic if it was able to force laws on to this country that presumably we didn't want.

Have you even heard of the Yellowhammer report Hazeld?

If it hadn't been for Ms May and her not wanting to leave without keeping favour with the bigwigs in the ERG, we might have been have been out by now. Some poorly informed people voted to leave regardless and that's why we should be having another vote now we can all be properly informed. The sooner the better

If it hadn't been for Ms May and her not wanting to leave without keeping favour with the bigwigs in Brussels, we would have been out by now. We voted to leave regardless and that's what we should be doing. Get us out now. The sooner the better

What worries me about her is that she was stupid enough to believe everything she was told and she’s a teacher......aaargh!

Jen, a teacher from Southampton, voted Leave in 2016. She slowly started to see Brexit becoming nothing like what was promised to voters like her. She also understands the EU better now. Jen is a Remainer Now.

"I voted Leave, but I DID NOT vote for No-Deal. The concept of No-Deal did not even exist during the referendum!! In 2016, it seemed to me that by voting Leave the UK would keep all the benefits of being in the European Union (Single Market/Freedom of Movement, etc.), but have less EU rules and more money. I am a teacher and a mother. I did not have the time to decipher what was a Vote Leave broadcast and what was not.

But then, I slowly started to see Brexit becoming nothing like what was promised. People, however, seemed to be blind to this fact justbecause they had ‘won’ and accepted the lies. If MPs in Government are telling me something, how am I supposed to know it is only an ‘intention’? This is not a football match. It is the future of a Nation and people’s lives. In 2016, Britain said Leave. Now, after 3 years, we ACTUALLY know what ‘Leave’ means. I (we) know so much more now!

When the Leave/Cambridge Analytica scandal started to unravel I was horrified. Again Leave voters are either ignoring this or not bothered because they ‘won’. It is not even about Leave vs Remain, it is about a fair and informed electorate and Democracy.

I wanted to find out what Leave voters would think if it were the other way round and Remain had broken the law to sway votes,promote lies and ultimately subvert Democracy. So, I maybe asked 200 people on Twitter, and so far 0 have responded. What does that tell you?

Being free from EU control and laws was also a factor that made me voted Leave. Only after the vote did I find out how the EU Parliament actually works.

I am so annoyed with myself that I fell for the Leave fiction on Facebook and in the media. Especially after I saw this Twitter thread and could not believe it. All those EU rules Brexiters go mad about... There are actually just 72 laws that were forced on us, and they 100% benefit the UK! And every other EU law has been voted for by UK MEPs and passed by UK Ministers. So much for the EU being undemocratic!"

vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/2019/09/12/i-voted-leave-i-hate-myself-for-believing-the-lies/

I have two friends that were staunch remainers.
They would now vote leave after seeing the way we have been treated, it made them question and delve further.
They say that many of their friends and colleagues feel the same

"ComRes surveyed 2,016 British adults online between Sept 6 and 8" - They only surveyed just over 2000 people and have made assumptions on that about the other millions they didn't survey? How many "don't knows" were there? How did they select those 2,000 odd? We are not told that.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics - and the way those statistics are presented is important to their impact on readers (particularly non-critical readers of partisan media)

The Telegraph is facing criticism from the research industry for claiming that the prime minister has the support of ‘more than half of the public’ to ‘deliver Brexit by any means’, in its reporting of an opinion poll conducted by ComRes. Research Live

(Research Live is the world's leading source of industry news, opinion, special reports and feature articles for market and social researchers, data analysts and consumer insight professionals.)

I don't know any remained who have changed their minds. I do know of people who didn't vote, but would now vote to stay. Equally the polls can't be trusted, surely we have learnt that!