Second waves - dealing with the virus part 2 ??

The simple answer is that the virus is continually mutating, but not in any meaningful way. It's not getting "weaker" or "stronger". It's just changing slightly as it moves round the globe.

www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-mutations-strains-variants

That article is a few weeks out of date. I found some more recent ones, but they're written in more "scientific" language. They're all saying the same thing.

The only way to prevent a a second wave of outbreaks is to bring the community transmission rate (R) right down to practically zero. If it's not zero, mitigation measures such as social distancing and mask wearing need to be rigidly enforced. Test and track systems could identify isolated flare ups, but only if they're efficient and people do actually isolate themselves. We do not have an efficient and well-resourced system.
Letting the virus run free within the community will inevitably cause more deaths and long-term complications. That's the price we'll pay for people to get back to work

It seems clear enough to me without the scientific or economic background of those in charge of our society.
Sadly, that seems to be a price our government thinks is worth paying - livelihoods over lives.
If the public could be trusted to show some common sense, yes, things could ease up, but swathes of our population seem to have a self-destruct button and if they are not told what to do in words of one syllable they take it as carte blanche to behave like life is one long Bank Holiday Monday. .

livelihoods over lives - yes, that just about sums it up (and often said by the retired with gardens, who don't have to go to work by public transport or those who are fed up with their kids at home).

And, no, the public can't be trusted to use common sense or even understand the issues.

The government and some sections of the media have framed lockdown as depriving people of their freedom rather than protecting them and others in society. Johnson obviously thinks that throwing sweeties at the plebs will make them see him in a positive light.

Therefore, as soon as restrictions are relaxed, it's not surprising that people see it as being given permission to behave as they want, especially as the messaging itself has been so muddled.

growstuff: if my memory is correct Johnson even said, when he announced the easing of lockdowns ‘enjoy yourselves I groaned when he said it just as I did when he eased lockdown previously and said people could have barbecues, at which point the scientific advisors had to warn people how easy it was to transmit the virus at barbecues.

Exactly MayBee. He seems to see himself as the person releasing the plebs from their hardship. What he's really doing is withdrawing protection too early.

PS. Good news that Scotland seems to have almost eradicated the infection. It looks as though Scotland got something right. Wales has had very few new cases too.

Many people do seem to be behaving as though the virus has gone away.

Packed beaches says it all. I even heard someone say that it was impossible to catch it out of doors! Although it is less likely I wouldn't want to sit inches away from strangers anywhere.

The advice is still to keep apart even when outside.

AGAA4 It's not just the people on beaches. I went out last weekend for the first time since mid March and I was horrified to see the lack of social distancing. I'm just as horrified to see some people on GN who don't seem to pushing the limits.

The government could (and I believe should) have closed beaches, banned the BLM and anti-BLM marches, etc but it can't do much about the widespread, small scale lack of social distancing, which is keeping the virus endemic.

Er no growstuff Scotland got things very wrong early on resulting in a far higher level of deaths per hundred thousand. Maybe things look better now as the poor, unfortunate vulnerable ones have already gone. A dreadful thing to have to say.

Wales opens the floodgates next week.
This area had the highest number of cases in the country (UK) at one point

Let's hope it rains.

Growstuff. I know. I see it by just looking out of my window.
People just don't seem to be bothered now and social distancing is not for them.

Why did Johnson impose the lockdown on a Monday having given people a whole weekend to have a last hurrah (which, as the weather was good, they did) but is now, to the despair of the police opening up pubs on a Saturday ?

May I expect A and E departments are in despair as well for 4 July. He just doesn’t care, does he?

I think Mark Drakeford does care.

He seemed like a kindly headmaster to me, previously but I think he may have a core of steel.

What happened at Ogmore was shocking - the cream of Welsh youth! And we don't want a repeat.

Yes. Torrential rain would be ideal. Our parks are packed with large groups. The level of litter and human waste is appalling. A health hazard in itself apart from the fights going on. The coronavirus seems the least of the problems this weather.

You are absolutely right Jane10 we got it wrong because we had to play by Boris' rules.Not "allowed" to lockdown until nearly three weeks after we wanted to ...and the evidence is there in a Sky TV interview ,having to change suppliers for PPE because Westminster told THEIR suppliers NOT to supply Scotland and Wales etc etc etc.Hopefully this will open eyes about how Westminster expets us to toe their line even when we know whats best for US here in Scotland and Independence cant be far away now with the number of folk I see who tell me they didn;t realise devolution was as limited in power as it is .NOT that a tory /unionist like you will ever agree.There would be no chance of any Empire "honour" without the WM noose around our necks !!

Jane10 You're the one going on about gloom merchants now. I can understand why. Covid-19 has been almost eradicated in Scotland, whereas the rates in England, particularly in pockets, are still dangerously high. It's not about gloom and doom. It's about not becoming one of the statistics as just another "poor, unfortunate vulnerable" one.

The downward curve of new infections and deaths in England has stopped going down. It's levelled off over the last 10 days or so and could, in fact, be increasing. I sincerely hope it isn't, but it's not looking good.

When Brighton and Hove Labour MP Peter Kyle asked the following question in Parliament:

“It’s good news that people can start socialising and meeting in public again. But what is he going to do to make sure that destination communities such as the one I represent in Brighton and Hove are extra safe?

“Because there will be people meeting and drinking in places like the seafront and in parks where it will be impossible to get the names and addresses of every customer.

“There will be other pinch points where people from various destinations will be rubbing up against each other.

“What will he do in the absence of the promised app to make sure these communities are destinations for investment and not destinations for Covid?”

This was Johnson's reply:

“I will be calling on local representatives such as himself to show some guts and determination and champion their communities as venues for people to return to and support."

So people took him at his word. They did see beaches as venues for people to return to and support.

Just reread my post from yesterday afternoon.

"who don't seem to pushing the limits" should read "who seem to be pushing the limits".

I think it was the result of a hasty edit.

Do think that all the talk about social distancing and football celebrations, people on beaches, etc. is exactly what the government wants us to be talking about.

Takes away any real discussion on the total lack by that government to sort out a proper test and track system after the highly expensive and much lauded one they insisted would be a world beater - and failed dismally""

Also, lack of proper testing. Every country in the world where this virus is being brought under control has done so mainly by testing, testing and even more testing.

Both of the above the government now seems to have metaphorically washed their hands off.

So, they wish to encourage the future victims of this disease to blame it on the actions of everyone else, to take attention away from the real reason - the government.

Forget the crowds, start writing to and nagging your local parliamentary representative to get a proper track and trace system and more and more tests in place

Callistemon I absolutely agree with you about Mark Drakeford. I hope he continues to ‘stick to his guns’, and not pander to others as Boris seems to do. A doctor on tv this morning said she really fears a second wave and that the government is unlocking too quickly.
We live near the sea in SW Wales and as yet there has been no influx of people, camper vans or caravans. Long may it last

I agree with you Franbern. It's all about distraction and blaming the "stupid" people.

Having encouraged people to celebrate and go to the beach, Johnson is now telling people to be more careful. I don't believe for one moment that's not deliberate. It's a ploy to get people blaming others, while he can can claim he did warn people.

I think that the majority of people are careful and adhere to Social Distancing.

However, the powder keg situation in the inner cities is simmering, getting very close to boiling point and certainly in London has boiled over with the so called block parties illegal music, drinking and probably illegal substances. These could be another flash point whereby our brave Police Officers are in the firing line.

We have no idea of the home situations of the thousands of people that flocked to the beaches this week. I do
not know what I would do if I was from an inner city high rise flat desperate for some sea air and water play for my children.

I am not justifying their actions but I am trying to see things from their point of view. We are not all fortunate to have gardens, pools and personal space.

Dr John Campbell in his excellent daily blog constantly points out that we are still, actually, at the beginning of this pandemic. And yet people are behaving as if it’s all over. It beggars belief.

BBbevan

Callistemon I absolutely agree with you about Mark Drakeford. I hope he continues to ‘stick to his guns’, and not pander to others as Boris seems to do. A doctor on tv this morning said she really fears a second wave and that the government is unlocking too quickly.
We live near the sea in SW Wales and as yet there has been no influx of people, camper vans or caravans. Long may it last

BBbevan I was horrified to see on the Welsh news the invasion of Ogmore-by-Sea by hundreds of young people who ended up brawling and left their filth and litter behind for locals to start to clear up, helped then by the Council workers.

I despair and fear this could become the norm as the feral take over and said to DH that I wish we'd emigrated years ago.

All they need to do is "show some guts"

“I will be calling on local representatives such as himself to show some guts and determination and champion their communities as venues for people to return to and support."