Second waves - dealing with the virus part 2 ??

The plan appears to be working.

Some people want to lift lockdown restrictions and get people back to work, whether or not it's safe for everybody to do so.

Some sensible MPs and advisors point out that it's not a good idea because people will get sick and some will die. The public doesn't seem to be swallowing the message, will blame the government and we'll lose votes. Some MPs might even begin to vote against the government.

"No problem! We have a cumming plan"

Johnson does his usual affable clown act and tells an MP in Parliament to have some guts about welcoming visitors to the seaside, tells the public they can go out and enjoy themselves and, if necessary, take it on the chin.

He later retracts some of the messaging, but it's too late. People are already looking forward to a few days of light relief after three depressing months.

Cummings and Co know perfectly well what it will be like. Thousands of people will go to beaches and other beauty spots. Some will get drunk and behave badly. There's likely to be tonnes of litter. That's how people behave when they're excited and nobody's in control.

And then people on random sites will start complaining about the "others" behaving like animals. They'll claim they have too much time on their hands because they're all furloughed and living the high life at the taxpayers' expense. "Get them all back to work!" they'll shriek.

And so it will come to pass ...

PS. It doesn't really matter how many die ... they all have underlying health conditions and are on death's door anyway.

I do hope that none of the Liverpool Fans catch a fatal dose of Covid-19 after their celebrations over the last two nights.

Anyway, Johnson's not in charge, nor is Cummings although Cummings may be part of the elite group that wants a new world order.

I can do conspiracies too.

www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-declares-new-outbreak-contained-after-massive-testing-effort-n1232084

Beijing (a city with a population of over 20 million) has had 270 locally transmitted cases since 11 June. To put that into context, the UK has had over 100 deaths on most days since 11 June.

As soon as cases were reported in the new flare up, the city went into "wartime emergency mode" and infection appears to have been contained.

So who's in charge?

It's hardly a conspiracy theory when anybody with half open eyes can see what's happening.

Callistemon we very nearly bought a house overlooking the sea at Ogmore. But DH said “ There will be ‘oiks‘ on that grass in the summer”. He was proved right.

I’m worried about the levelling off of the downward curve of infections and deaths that growstuff mentioned earlier today. This is very worrying to me. Is it coincidental that rioting, crowds pushing and shoving to get into shops ( think the Nike store featured on the news last week) crowds congregating on beaches, street parties, press congregating outside DC’s house etc that the rate has levelled off, following these occurrences?

I suggest it is not!

maddyone The levelling off had already started before the BLM protests, beach crowds or shops opening. It started about two weeks ago, so was probably the result of something which happened about three weeks ago.

Since then, we've had all sorts of relaxations of lockdown, seemingly haphazard. I think many people have just given up.

The deaths are probably the result of something which happened earlier. The government has stopped publishing exact details of deaths, so it's difficult to know when or how the victims were infected.

This country is being gaslit by Cummings and Johnson, all the encouragement to go forth and enjoy ourselves 'safely' but giving 10 days notice so that it all builds up to some gross celebration next weekend. Meanwhile, my family have stayed home, stayed safe, shopped only when absolutely necesary and for food only, but my son has to return to work, travelling by train, from next week. Thus, my sensible, law abiding son will be exposed to infection because a few people want to get pissed. Great, thanks for that. Then, as the inevitable happens, and the rate rises, the newspapers can release all the photographs and show how it was all 'our fault' that we are dying of covid19. I don't know what makes me angrier (1) the inefficiency and lies of this government (2) the fact that many people accept this or (3) the government know some of us have rumbled them, but they don't care. Also, am I the only one who finds the throwing open the doors, lifting lockdown policy in Sweden a little sinister? As I remember it, the 'science' of eugenics is Swedish in origin. Will check.

So many conspiracy theories! It's better than the telly or at least it's more exciting than the government, being made up of humans, doing their best at a difficult time to the howls of derision from those who want everything and everyone to be magically better.
That's life. If only everyone was perfect. Nobody would disobey guidelines, governments would be made up of saints with limitless cash and we'd all be happy. Ah well. At least we can offload on GN.

If you’re correct growstuff we can look forward to a spike in infections then, anything from one to three weeks hence. But don’t forget that from exposure to development of symptoms varies enormously from as little as two to five days, up to three or even more weeks. The usual pattern though is that development of symptoms happens in the first two weeks after exposure. There were people congregating on beaches and at beauty spots long ago during the lockdown, and media clambering together long ago during the lockdown, and the riots and protests started two full weeks ago now, and shops opened two weeks ago on Monday, and so I think it’s worrying but understandable that the curve of infections and deaths has now steadied. We can look forward to a rise in infections, but hope for the opposite.

BBbevan

Callistemon we very nearly bought a house overlooking the sea at Ogmore. But DH said “ There will be ‘oiks‘ on that grass in the summer”. He was proved right.

We were the oiks last year!

A sedate group of seven pensioners, sorry five pensioners two still working in their 60s and 70s, sitting on our chairs on the grass enjoying the view then having a walk on the beach!
Took our own flasks then went to the pub for lunch.

It wouldn't be rocket science to make the whole thing go away. Just quarantine everybody 100% for two weeks and the virus would have no host.

Obviously, that's not realistic in practice, but it's not helped by people who really don't seem to be able to see what an appalling job the government is doing and who continue to find loopholes for themselves and not to understand the big picture. Too many "I'm alright Jacks".

maddyone

If you’re correct growstuff we can look forward to a spike in infections then, anything from one to three weeks hence. But don’t forget that from exposure to development of symptoms varies enormously from as little as two to five days, up to three or even more weeks. The usual pattern though is that development of symptoms happens in the first two weeks after exposure. There were people congregating on beaches and at beauty spots long ago during the lockdown, and media clambering together long ago during the lockdown, and the riots and protests started two full weeks ago now, and shops opened two weeks ago on Monday, and so I think it’s worrying but understandable that the curve of infections and deaths has now steadied. We can look forward to a rise in infections, but hope for the opposite.

I was really thinking more of the levelling off (and possible rise in) the death rate.

I was working on the assumption that people are infected for a couple of days before they symptoms and then often seem well for a week before the real physically damaging symptoms appear.

I know some people have died very quickly, but I think I read somewhere it's more likely to be about three weeks from initial infection to death.

There has never been a proper lockdown and I'm tired of repeating it.

It is impossible to have a complete lockdown.

China tried it in Wuhan for 76 days and then had further outbreaks.

Wuhan was just a city, not a whole country. You can't have a whole country in lockdown - no food, no emergency services, no utilities.

Growstuff, you can have total control over your population when you run a totalitarian regime.
When you have a democracy you can’t. Our system is not set up to run like China’s. I, for one, am very glad.

But you can still do your best to protect your population. France and Italy are both democracies and had much stricter lockdowns than the UK's half-hearted effort.

There were just too many loopholes and too many people thinking that somehow they were different from everybody else and their needs more special.

Sparklefizz

Wuhan was just a city, not a whole country. You can't have a whole country in lockdown - no food, no emergency services, no utilities.

Yes, in theory you could have a whole country in lockdown, not that I'm seriously suggesting it. I was pointing out that the only way to defeat Covid-19 is by abolishing all human contact. Denied a host, the virus would very soon die out.

In theory, it would be possible for all essential services (and I mean essential, not what some people thought they couldn't live without) to be provided by a limited number of people who were very regularly tested, provided with PPE and instructed (in most cases) to keep their distance.

PamelaJ1

Growstuff, you can have total control over your population when you run a totalitarian regime.
When you have a democracy you can’t. Our system is not set up to run like China’s. I, for one, am very glad.

Do you really think the UK still has a meaningful democracy?

In any case, the flaw with democracy is that it doesn't protect minorities.

Apologies I should have said Hubei Province.
Even so, Wuhan itself has the population of a small country.

Growstuff, Yes I do. It’s not perfect I will admit. But I certainly wouldn’t want to live in a country where disagreement with government policy was a suicide mission. Even Gransnet would not be allowed in so many countries.

You may feel you are not listened to here but you are allowed to express your opinion without fear. By the government that is.