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Second waves - dealing with the virus part 2 ??

(232 Posts)
MawB Tue 23-Jun-20 08:59:01

It’s not gone, it’s not even going to be gone - but it’s how we deal with it that will make the difference.
Beijing faced lockdown after reporting an outbreak last week after being declared virus-free for a whole day.
An Anglesey chicken plant has had 175 new cases recently.
Germany has had a serious outbreak in and around Gütersloh starting in an abattoir and meat processing plant, it is suspected involving unsanitary living conditions for migrant workers.
Berlin has had a surge in the poor and densely populated Neu-Kölln area of the city
And now South Korea , previously held up as a shining example is facing a worrying surge as health authorities in South Korea admitted yesterday it was experiencing a “second wave” in Seoul.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is reported as saying it had become clear that a holiday weekend in early May marked the start of a new wave of infections in the densely populated greater Seoul area, which had previously seen few cases.
There are some common factors such as working temperatures in the meat processing plants but also the lamentable living conditions where migrant workers have been involved and of course predictable consequences in lapses in social distancing, but in all cases prompt identification, testing, tracking and isolating have been paramount in stopping these second waves from becoming countrywide.
I just hope that this time the government and our public health authorities can learn from the experience of others.

Urmstongran Sun 28-Jun-20 07:42:06

Dr. Ellie Cannon says this morning she’s sticking her neck out here by saying she doesn’t think there will be a second wave.

Be great if she’s right.

Many scientists think the virus is weakening and there won’t be a second wave. Just whack-a-mole of small clusters n the next few weeks.

BlueSky Sun 28-Jun-20 08:27:37

Love your posts Urmston they always give us hope where there's been despair. Enjoy your stay in Spain. (Are you planning to come back? I wouldn't bother)!

Jane10 Sun 28-Jun-20 10:07:36

There isn't always despair! Beware Urmstongran- people don't seem to want to hear good news!
The numbers of people with Covid 19 are absolutely dwarfed by the numbers of people with cancer, heart disease and other critical illnesses. It's time we got things in proportion and let these unfortunate people have the treatment they need so badly.
To give you some idea of the seriousness of this, there are an average of 165,000 deaths from cancer each year and 170,000from heart disease. Compare those with the Covid mortality rate!

Luckygirl Sun 28-Jun-20 10:23:07

But these illnesses are not infectious! - that is the point. That is why we do not have lockdowns over cancer or heart disease!

The death rate for coronavirus would have been vastly higher, dwarfing those from other diseases, if no action had been taken.

MawB Sun 28-Jun-20 11:01:42

Exactly Luckygirl

There are too many people, government included who seem to think that if you want something to be so, then it is.
The spread of the virus is still the threat it was, the risks from the virus, roughly likewise, although there are ongoing developments in treatment of the illness , if you are in one of the big hospitals with cutting edge facilities.
I am not advocating hiding behind the sofa but frankly to think that we are out of the woods is cloud cuckoo land. If something was too risky two months ago, it probably still is. Countries with stricter lockdown measures in the first instance are without question coping better. And don’t anybody quote Sweden because their statistics are frankly terrifying especially in the more densely populated areas.
Where the have been second waves (whatever Jane 10*’s quoted Doctor/scientist says) they have been nipped in the bud by testing, tracking and *quarantining .
Are we ready for that? I doubt it .

maddyone Sun 28-Jun-20 11:07:00

I saw it reported yesterday that even if the current death rate continues, at around 100 a day, by next Spring we will have 80,000 deaths. Since the death rate seems to have plateaued out over the last couple of weeks, and infections are estimated to be running at about 3000 a day, although reported as many fewer, I’m not at all confident that we are actually coming out of this epidemic. However I’m hoping that that this wrong. I read on Facebook something that struck me, it said’ The virus has not gone away, it’s just that there’s room for you in ICU now.’

Callistemon Sun 28-Jun-20 11:07:27

With respect to Dr Ellie Cannon, she is a GP and broadcadter, she's not an epidemiologist nor a virologist nor even a scientist.

Her speciality is women's health, apparently.

Jane10 Sun 28-Jun-20 11:24:42

It's not a second wave it's just another outbreak! Test and trace.

Chewbacca Sun 28-Jun-20 12:33:59

Leicester is facing another, localised, lockdown due to an increase in reported cases according to BBC news today.

MayBee70 Mon 29-Jun-20 12:22:41

Just mentioned on another thread that people were flying in from Pakistan and going straight to hospital with Covid. It was in one of Dr John Campbell’s blogs and he’s very thorough about getting his facts right. I need to listen to it again, though, as there’s so much to take in in his blogs.

MayBee70 Mon 29-Jun-20 12:23:15

This was in the Leicester area by the way.

growstuff Mon 29-Jun-20 15:34:29


Dr. Ellie Cannon says this morning she’s sticking her neck out here by saying she doesn’t think there will be a second wave.

Be great if she’s right.

Many scientists think the virus is weakening and there won’t be a second wave. Just whack-a-mole of small clusters n the next few weeks.

I'm sure I've asked this before, but could you please give some evidence that the virus is "weakening"?

I have a friend (a Professor at a UK university) whose team is working on how the virus operates and he doesn't seem think the virus is weakening.

Scientists have a better understanding of how it attacks the body, which means that treatments could improve, but the virus itself isn't weakening.

So which reputable scientists or doctors think differently?

Obviously, I'd like it to be true, which is why I'd like to see some evidence.

growstuff Mon 29-Jun-20 15:42:25


Growstuff, Yes I do. It’s not perfect I will admit. But I certainly wouldn’t want to live in a country where disagreement with government policy was a suicide mission. Even Gransnet would not be allowed in so many countries.

You may feel you are not listened to here but you are allowed to express your opinion without fear. By the government that is.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I'm not claiming for one minute that the UK is anything like North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia or some other countries.

However, I honestly think people should ask themselves just how democratic the UK is. It's being chipped away under our noses.

Incidentally, democracy is not the same thing as free speech and they don't always go together.

GrannyGravy13 Mon 29-Jun-20 16:07:49

The Mayor of Leicester was interviewed on the lunchtime news and he is not in agreement with locking down the city or even delaying the opening of bars, restaurants etc.

So much for localised lockdowns to help control the virus, not sure how this could be imposed without local political agreement?

AGAA4 Mon 29-Jun-20 16:32:46

As Leicester has had a big spike in infections something had to be done. I think they have delayed the opening of bars and restaurants for two weeks.

Allowing the infection to spread to other parts of the country has to be stopped.

Jane10 Mon 29-Jun-20 18:38:12

Is it really true that people are flying in from Pakistan and going direct to hospital?

maddyone Mon 29-Jun-20 18:58:23

I don’t know if it’s true, but I have heard that too.

varian Mon 29-Jun-20 19:11:14

England has the worst record in Europe

MayBee70 Mon 29-Jun-20 19:15:03

It was on Dr John Campbell’s blog: quite a recent one. He’s very concerned about what is happening in places like India so wouldn’t be someone to say something like that in a nasty way. I’ll try to re listen to the blog and get more details. They don’t necessarily go straight to hospital. I tend to have it on in the background and can’t always take in all the information. I did think that Leicester was more Hindu than Muslim though, but I could be wrong.

Chewbacca Mon 29-Jun-20 19:16:08

Is this what you've seen Jane10?

Data from Public Health England (PHE) shows that 30 cases of coronavirus in people who have travelled from Pakistan since June 4, which is understood to represent half of the incidents of imported infection.

With up to two flights a day from Pakistan, there have been reports of some arrivals almost instantly going to hospital for intensive care, amid concerns that the influx has led to localised clusters....

Riverwalk Mon 29-Jun-20 20:06:12

there have been reports of some arrivals almost instantly going to hospital for intensive care,

Reported where and by whom?

MayBee70 Mon 29-Jun-20 20:40:53

It was in the Telegraph. 1/2 all imported cases have come from Pakistan.65,000 people have entered the UK from Pakistan since March 1st. 2 flights per day. 30 cases since 4th June have been from Pakistan. Some people literally go straight to hospital. The Emirates have suspended flights from Pakistan and there is risk of spread to Europe via air bridges. I’ve listened to DrJohns latest videos and, blow me the dog needed to go out for a wee just as I got to the relevant but, but I was able to rewind it.

Chewbacca Mon 29-Jun-20 22:19:05

Reported where and by whom?

By me, in the post above yours; extract from the Telegraph. confused

Riverwalk Tue 30-Jun-20 06:34:54

Yes, I know the article was from the Telegraph but I was querying from whom the 'reports' came.

there have been reports of some arrivals ....

Did the reports come from hospitals in Leicester, the emergency services, airport authorities, etc. If some were going instantly to intensive care as reported they must have been in a bad way.

I'm just interested in the origin of the reports that spurred the article.

vegansrock Tue 30-Jun-20 07:07:58

If people in Leicester want to go to the pub aren’t they going to travel to the next town/ village? Are they going to stop travel in and out ?