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Coronavirus

South Africa has paused the rollout of the AZ vaccine

(90 Posts)
suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 12:13:17

Good idea to start this topic again. This is my understanding of what is going on and the implications for us
1. 90% of new cases in SA are the SA variant
2. Research carried out there in conjunction with Oxford has found disappointing results with AZ with only minimal protection being offered against mild and moderate disease.
3. The study subjects were young ( 40 and under) and so very unlikely to become severely ill and be hospitalised
4. As there is no evidence as yet about the efficacy of AZ re the SA variant they are going to use J and J and Pfizer instead until more data is available
5. AZ are working on a booster jab hopefully available here in the autumn which will be more effective give against tge SA variant
6. Tracking down SA variant cases here is clearly very important
7. So is stopping more cases coming in
8. Whatever vaccine we’ve had we should carry on as though we haven’t had any vaccine

Riverwalk Mon 08-Feb-21 12:23:13

What I find extraordinary about South Africa is that according to WHO figures, the number of Covid cases and deaths is dropping - how is that happening without a vaccination programme even getting off the ground?

I understand that they are relaxing lockdown restrictions to a certain extent. Could it be that it's summer there and that's making a difference?

WHO

PippaZ Mon 08-Feb-21 12:25:31

I was just thinking the same thing SuzieW. I do hope you got my apologies, flowers and more apologies, for mistaking you for someone else blush before the other thread was rightly closed.

Peasblossom Mon 08-Feb-21 12:29:18

What does ‘minimal effect against mild and moderate cases” actually mean?

It has minimal effect on preventing the number of cases of mild and moderate?

It didn’t alter the progress of mild and moderate cases?

After vaccination there were the same number of cases but these were mild to moderate?

The study only looked at mild and moderate?

I don’t think that bit is very clear.

suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 12:31:06

PippaZ

I was just thinking the same thing SuzieW. I do hope you got my apologies, flowers and more apologies, for mistaking you for someone else blush before the other thread was rightly closed.

Thanks for that - the thread had got really muddled and I should have avoided ambiguous use of ‘they’ 🙄😀

DeeDe Mon 08-Feb-21 12:36:47

I’ve had the Oxford vaccine along with four members of my family, & their NHS workers, had mine because of my age
I’m now concerned about the NHS workers that are not covered as fully as need be, will they get priority in getting new vaccines ? or am I worrying about nothing?
Stay safe flowers

suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 12:37:31

Peasblossom

What does ‘minimal effect against mild and moderate cases” actually mean?

It has minimal effect on preventing the number of cases of mild and moderate?

It didn’t alter the progress of mild and moderate cases?

After vaccination there were the same number of cases but these were mild to moderate?

The study only looked at mild and moderate?

I don’t think that bit is very clear.

Minimal in this study meant only 22%. All outcomes were recorded - mild, moderate, severe, hospitalisations, deaths. Of the subjects infected and vaccinated, only 22% showed no mild or moderate outcomes ie 78% had mild/moderate outcomes. No one had more serious outcomes but and this is a big but the subjects were young ànd healthy and unlikely therefore to be seriously ill or die. What we have here is an absence of evidence not evidence of absence. The fact that AZ are working on a booster jab for the SA variant is relevant.

suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 12:41:37

DeeDe

I’ve had the Oxford vaccine along with four members of my family, & their NHS workers, had mine because of my age
I’m now concerned about the NHS workers that are not covered as fully as need be, will they get priority in getting new vaccines ? or am I worrying about nothing?
Stay safe flowers

As long as we don’t get the SA variant - that’s what trying to trace cases here is so important as is keeping more cases out. What everyone has to do is keep acting as though they haven’t been vaccinated. No vaccine gives 100% protection anyway even against the original strain

GrannyGravy13 Mon 08-Feb-21 12:42:14

The study was small 2,000 people average age 31.

The numbers are falling in South Africa, and everything is open?

Experts that have been rolled out on numerous news programmes today seem to want more information before committing to an opinion.

Far too many questions and variants not enough definitive answers.

Peasblossom Mon 08-Feb-21 12:42:29

OK that’s a bit clearer. Any ongoing studies on older age groups?

suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 12:43:41

The median age was 31 not the average. The upper age was 40 which is the really relevant fact

suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 12:46:36

Peasblossom

OK that’s a bit clearer. Any ongoing studies on older age groups?

My understanding is that these results are from Phase1/11 trials. Early stage trials are almost always done on younger healthier subjects. The next stage is Phase 111 and at this stage older groups are usually included along with people with underlying conditions

BlueBelle Mon 08-Feb-21 12:46:49

If it means that we can still catch CV after having the Oxford jab ......_we already knew that was possible with both vaccines_

If it means we can still catch CV but it won’t become the killer we are frightened of but cause more minor flu symptoms ....._We already knew that I thought_
So is this new information? or just a rehashed piece of information we already knew and if so it is just a damaging and scare mongering especially if the red tops pick up and run with it

EllanVannin Mon 08-Feb-21 12:48:11

Too many have died after having had vaccinations---why ?
It seems to have been the Pfizer one where to begin with there were 23 deaths in Norway. Other's have occured in other countries including our own. It's not acceptable !
Don't you think that there should be a call for more testing before another vaccine is just cobbled together ?

GrannyGravy13 Mon 08-Feb-21 12:48:16

suziewoozie

The median age was 31 not the average. The upper age was 40 which is the really relevant fact

Average / Median depends where you are getting the information. The American Professor of epidemiology who is based at one of the Scottish Universities repeatedly said “average age” on the news this morning.

BlueSky Mon 08-Feb-21 12:50:53

Thanks Suzie very informative.

Alegrias1 Mon 08-Feb-21 12:52:14

DH and I were talking about this at lunchtime. Neither of us are medics or virologists or anything like it, but we're both scientists.

DH hadn't been following this and when I explained it was an unreviewed paper leaked by the Telegraph on Friday night, he was amazed at the amount of discussion going on about it. Median age, size of the trial, the meaning of "minimal", how many SA cases in the UK etc.

There are only going to be more and more trials and more and more results that mean things will change. If we individually try to understand what everything will mean then it won't be COVID that gets us, it will be stress.

Dottynan Mon 08-Feb-21 12:54:55

EllanVannin did these people die because of the vaccine or regardless of the vaccine

EllanVannin Mon 08-Feb-21 12:55:12

And if it isn't Covid or stress, it'll be the bloomin' vaccine !

suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 12:57:07

GrannyGravy13

suziewoozie

The median age was 31 not the average. The upper age was 40 which is the really relevant fact

Average / Median depends where you are getting the information. The American Professor of epidemiology who is based at one of the Scottish Universities repeatedly said “average age” on the news this morning.

People are very lazy in using the word average even Professors and it’s really not good enough. There are three measures of dispersion - mean, median and mode and in clinical research it’s incredibly important which is meant. I actually went to the actual trial results and found the information that the median age was 31 (which means half were below and half above this age) However by itself this did not tell us how many older people were in the trial so I looked at the range which was twenty something ( forget exactly) with a top age of 40 which is really relevant

Alegrias1 Mon 08-Feb-21 12:57:32

Oh don't say that EV - people will believe you!! 🤣

GrannyGravy13 Mon 08-Feb-21 12:59:04

Alegrias1 I agree, I do wish the media would only report factual news as opposed to maybe/might be. It can lead to misunderstandings and scares folks unnecessarily.

suziewoozie Mon 08-Feb-21 13:00:41

Alegrias1

DH and I were talking about this at lunchtime. Neither of us are medics or virologists or anything like it, but we're both scientists.

DH hadn't been following this and when I explained it was an unreviewed paper leaked by the Telegraph on Friday night, he was amazed at the amount of discussion going on about it. Median age, size of the trial, the meaning of "minimal", how many SA cases in the UK etc.

There are only going to be more and more trials and more and more results that mean things will change. If we individually try to understand what everything will mean then it won't be COVID that gets us, it will be stress.

I sympathise with much of this post but given thE huge amount of uninformed comment that will inevitably result from earlier and earlier reporting of pre peer reviewed results, I think it’s helpful to have clinical trial nerds like me around.

GrannyGravy13 Mon 08-Feb-21 13:01:57

suziewoozie I have not got a science background, I rely on a wide range of experts, if they are sloppy with words and explanations who do folks like me turn to for information?

Washerwoman Mon 08-Feb-21 13:02:04

If it prevents serious illness or death that will do for me.Honestly the news last night.The BBC can't wait to give us bad news.