COVID cases on the brink of breaking 100k a day (Zoe Covid Study)

This article gives a very good explanation of the problems in collecting and analysing data about deaths in a pandemic:

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Here's the first paragraph, the article has lots of useful graphs:

"As covid-19 has spread around the world, people have become grimly familiar with the death tolls that their governments publish each day. Unfortunately, the total number of fatalities caused by the pandemic may be even higher, for several reasons. First, the official statistics in many countries exclude victims who did not test positive for coronavirus before dying—which can be a substantial majority in places with little capacity for testing. Second, hospitals and civil registries may not process death certificates for several days, or even weeks, which creates lags in the data. And third, the pandemic has made it harder for doctors to treat other conditions and discouraged people from going to hospital, which may have indirectly caused an increase in fatalities from diseases other than covid-19.

One way to account for these methodological problems is to use a simpler measure, known as “excess deaths”: take the number of people who die from any cause in a given region and period, and then compare it with a historical baseline from recent years. We have used statistical models to create our baselines, by predicting the number of deaths each region would normally have recorded in 2020 and 2021."

Americanpie

I think, IMHO, that people should stop getting tested so often. Our local council are offering prizes to people getting tested with no symptoms. It's as if the council want the pandemic to continue forever so that it can be used as an excuse for why nothing is being done. Nearly all council workers are still at home and the libraries still haven't fully opened to pre-pandemic hours. The vaccines do not stop anyone from passing the virus on so we have to learn to live with it.

The pandemic won't stop if people stop testing. It won't just go away if people aren't looking.

Cunco

Growstuff: I am not denying anything. I am looking at the statistics on a daily and weekly basis. The death data is provided by ONS every Tuesday if you want to check my arithmetic.

You may be interested in this quote I saw today: ‘The majority of those that die do so with Covid and not of Covid.’

– Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist

That's rubbish!

You might be interested in reading how Tegnell changed his mind:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52903717

And this is a verdict on Tegnell's strategy a year later:

www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-strategy-failed-higher-death-rate-2021-8?r=US&IR=T

Cunco

Growstuff: I am not denying anything. I am looking at the statistics on a daily and weekly basis. The death data is provided by ONS every Tuesday if you want to check my arithmetic.

You may be interested in this quote I saw today: ‘The majority of those that die do so with Covid and not of Covid.’

– Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist

You are not thinking logically Cunco.

So, people are dying.
They have Covid but they are not dying of Covid.
They are mainly dying of an underlying condition that they have, up to the Covid, survived. (Unless you think there is absolutely no cause for their death).

Don't you see that means Covid makes the difference and that we, therefore, need to deal with - not ignore -Covid.

^They have Covid but they are not dying of Covid.
They are mainly dying of an underlying condition that they have, up to the Covid, survived. (Unless you think there is absolutely no cause for their death)^

Unless of course their longstanding underlying condition has worsened anyway. It happens. With or without Covid as a factor, sadly.

Well, it really doesn’t matter if people were going to die anyway, does it….

Dr Johns latest blog agrees with the ZoeApp stats and the ONS one. He can’t understand why the government one seems to underplay the amount of infection in the country. Hmm. Maybe they don’t want to hit the magic figure of 100,000 and have to bring in Plan B before COP26. Surely not.

Americanpie

I think, IMHO, that people should stop getting tested so often. Our local council are offering prizes to people getting tested with no symptoms. It's as if the council want the pandemic to continue forever so that it can be used as an excuse for why nothing is being done. Nearly all council workers are still at home and the libraries still haven't fully opened to pre-pandemic hours. The vaccines do not stop anyone from passing the virus on so we have to learn to live with it.

Which council is that. Our local council has worked consistently throughout this pandemic. My daughter has been in the Office all through this. Changes have been made to assist the public, online, and telephone. We have never missed a bin collections in my area, and Libraries are now open. It’s a public service so has to be made available .

So has mine Lincslass. Some council workers were working from home, but I had to contact them twice for various reasons. The phone was picked up immediately and required actions were taken.

Americanpie Vaccines don't stop transmission, so there's even more reason for people to continue being cautious. Masks, social distancing when possible and testing aren't that difficult or infringing to do.

The 'with' or 'of' argument is daft. Having Covid can weaken your body to the point where an underlying condition (such as kidney disease) can kill you a decade earlier then it would have done.

Looking at the 'years of life lost' and 'excess deaths' figures is illuminating. Covid deniers (and minimisers) crave a 'back to normal, it's all over' fantasy life that simply doesn't exist.

I'm sick of hearing about 'damage to the economy and mental health' too - phrases just parroted out to excuse selfish, inconsiderate behaviour.

Statistics are misleading anyway. Take a look at 'Virus tests conducted' and you'll see that the rate of testing has reduced recently - so the figures may adjust/change accordingly later on:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

American pie Fri 29-Oct-21 18:53:18
I think, IMHO, that people should stop getting tested so often

In the same way that shutting your eyes means an oncoming train won’t hit you and hiding under the bedclothes will stop lightning striking?

MayBeMaw

Are you saying that doesnt work

Galaxy

Are you saying that doesnt work

Surely she wouldn't lie to us! Maybe somebody could volunteer to try it out and let is know if it works (or not, if it doesn't).

It's true to say that if we reduced testing - our Covid statistics would be lower, our deaths due to other causes would be higher - yet reality would be exactly the same!

Hetty58

The 'with' or 'of' argument is daft. Having Covid can weaken your body to the point where an underlying condition (such as kidney disease) can kill you a decade earlier then it would have done.

Looking at the 'years of life lost' and 'excess deaths' figures is illuminating. Covid deniers (and minimisers) crave a 'back to normal, it's all over' fantasy life that simply doesn't exist.

I'm sick of hearing about 'damage to the economy and mental health' too - phrases just parroted out to excuse selfish, inconsiderate behaviour.

Well said Hetty! I agree with all of your post.

Why should already sick hospital patients be subjected to Russian Roulette with this virus. An already sick patient is obviously going to struggle to cope with the additional Covid onslaught.

We need to reduce the numbers to protect the vulnerable. Too many selfish people seem to have the attitude “they’re sick anyway, so they can die”.

MayBee70

Dr Johns latest blog agrees with the ZoeApp stats and the ONS one. He can’t understand why the government one seems to underplay the amount of infection in the country. Hmm. Maybe they don’t want to hit the magic figure of 100,000 and have to bring in Plan B before COP26. Surely not.

India all over again.

Never give up a good photo opportunity when the he can be in the limelight.

Urmstongran

^They have Covid but they are not dying of Covid.
They are mainly dying of an underlying condition that they have, up to the Covid, survived. (Unless you think there is absolutely no cause for their death)^

Unless of course their longstanding underlying condition has worsened anyway. It happens. With or without Covid as a factor, sadly.

If you are suggesting that they simply have an underlying condition and it got worse but they had not tested positive for Covid that would be irrelevant to the statistics, Urmstongran. They would not be counted. They will only be counted if they have tested positive for Covid in the previous 28 days.

If you are suggesting that they have Covid but survive the Covid only to die when the Covid virulency has decreased this is why we have the 28-day cut-off. After that date, it is less likely to be the Covid. This is the way statisticians define Covid deaths for surveillance purposes. It is not meant to be exact to the extent of being exact for each and every person. We do not need it to be accurate in every single case. As that would require a clinical assessment of each case. it would take too long and we need the statistics now. In the science of statistics it just needs to be a proven and agreed accurate way of assessing what the Covid virus is doing. We need to see trends, not exact numbers.

The only clear case of someone dying with Covid within 28 days not having a death attributed to the patient having Covid is if the death cannot be related to COVID-19 disease - so trauma would/could be such a case. How many of those do you think they are.? Would you really say they are statistically significant?

If people stopped trying to make statistics say what they want them to say but worked out exactly what they are saying they could stop worrying quite so much about the statistics and get on with learning what we have to do while the virus is in our population.

Covid is not a cult or a religion that can be believed in or not. It is a scientifically traceable virus that can and does kill people or leave them very debilitated. That is what we have to deal with. Sometimes we have to accept that some people - statisticians in this case - are better at doing what they do than we are.

MayBee70

Dr Johns latest blog agrees with the ZoeApp stats and the ONS one. He can’t understand why the government one seems to underplay the amount of infection in the country. Hmm. Maybe they don’t want to hit the magic figure of 100,000 and have to bring in Plan B before COP26. Surely not.

I think that hits the spot MayBee.

Hetty58

Statistics are misleading anyway. Take a look at 'Virus tests conducted' and you'll see that the rate of testing has reduced recently - so the figures may adjust/change accordingly later on:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

If fewer tests are being conducted the statitics will work with that. It is difficult to see what you are suggesting. Perhaps you could explain. What effect do you think fewer tests would have?

MayBeMaw - Thank you for the sanity of your comment.

^I'm sick of hearing about 'damage to the economy and mental health' too - phrases just parroted out to excuse selfish, inconsiderate behaviour.

I couldn't agree more Hetty.