COVID cases on the brink of breaking 100k a day (Zoe Covid Study)

It will be interesting to see what happens to world figures after the Winter Olympics to be held in Beijing Feb 2022.

No problem GG13

MerylStreep - what happened after the summer olympics?

Weekly deaths involving COVID-19 in England since week ending 9 September have been 786, 783, 799, 715, 582, 640 and 708, the latest figure reported for week ending 22 October. Over the period, it is not a rising trend although it might become one.

If the focus is on reducing the spread of the virus, it should perhaps target secondary school children where cases are rising faster. If the focus is preventing deaths, full vaccination (with booster) of older people is the most effective means.

Over 80% of the latest weekly deaths involving COVID-19 in England & Wales were people over 65.

I wear a mask when inside public transport or shops. I am not sure it is necessary as I am fully vaccinated; but it makes me feel safer. I don't test unless I have a reason to test. I understand why people test more often but, given my lifestyle and again, full vaccination, I don't think it necessary for me.

Which figures are you using Cunco? Yesterday (4 November) the number of reported deaths in England was 152.

Other reported deaths are:

29 Oct 186
30 Oct 166
31 Oct 74
1 Nov 40
2 Nov 255
3 Nov 191

By my reckoning, that's a total of 1064 reported deaths in England over the last 7 days.

That looks like an increase to me.

To put that into context, there were 27,142 deaths in England from influenza and pneumonia in 2018. In 2019, there were 24,400. Currently, the number of deaths from Covid is approximately double the number of deaths from influenza and pneumonia in 2018 and 2019.

Sorry, I forgot the link:

www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/influenzadeathsin20182019and2020

rosie1959

I don't wish to catch it Growstuff but it depends on how much you are prepared to give up to avoid it and how busy your life is with work children and grandchildren
Certainly would not want any sympathy but then again millions have caught it were they all defeatist or just going about their normal daiky life

Almost half of them were school age children who caught it and almost certainly passed it on to family members, including older and more vulnerable ones.

I can't remember where I heard it, (I am away on holiday this week), but apparently 4 times as many American school aged children are being hospitalized with covid as UK children.
Why?

growstuff

rosie1959

I don't wish to catch it Growstuff but it depends on how much you are prepared to give up to avoid it and how busy your life is with work children and grandchildren
Certainly would not want any sympathy but then again millions have caught it were they all defeatist or just going about their normal daiky life

Almost half of them were school age children who caught it and almost certainly passed it on to family members, including older and more vulnerable ones.

They may well have been Growstuff but I have no intention of stopping my grandchildren visiting Apart from that I look after the youngest one day a week
We actually have had very few infections in our primary schools or nurseries all my grandchildren are quite young
No point in having the vaccine if I am going to worry about every interaction

Growstuff; My figures are reported weekly [usually Tuesdays] by ONS. They are deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. As we have discussed, many of these deaths also involve another illness.

As I noted, the latest figures in this series were for the week ending 22 October. As I also noted, they do not indicate a rising trend but it may become one. Your figures are later and from a different source.

The deaths throughout the period I presented were less than one half of one percent of new cases 4 weeks earlier. This compares with over 5% at the peak early in 2021 before vaccination was widespread. My caution was because cases have subsequently risen but there is now hope for later on because the trend in new cases most recently is downwards.

My source is:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

There is a summary on the front page but be aware, if you download the full spreadsheet, it is quite large and you need spreadsheet software to open it. Thankfully, it is not as big and cumbersome as the one detailing deaths in every borough in England and Wales for every week of the year.

Josianne

I can't remember where I heard it, (I am away on holiday this week), but apparently 4 times as many American school aged children are being hospitalized with covid as UK children.
Why?

I will whisper this quietly but could it be related to diet and obesity?

Or a lower threshold for hospital admission linked to the fact that it’s paid for by the user? I may just be cynical.

Calistemon

Josianne

I can't remember where I heard it, (I am away on holiday this week), but apparently 4 times as many American school aged children are being hospitalized with covid as UK children.
Why?

I will whisper this quietly but could it be related to diet and obesity?

Probably not. British children are just as obese as American ones.

www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/obesityandtheeconomicsofpreventionfitnotfat-unitedkingdomenglandkeyfacts.htm

Oh dear.

I didn't realise that. I know very few obese children, perhaps one or two in DGC's primary school, certainly not the norm.

Cunco My figures are from Public Health England (or whatever it's called these days). They're deaths within 28 days of a positive test by reporting date and are updated daily. On average, they're usually slightly lower than ONS figures, which don't have the 28 day cut off. If you look at a graph over the last three or four weeks, there's a definite upward trajectory. It's not that steep, but it's consistent.

Cases are decreasing, but deaths are increasing. That's expected because there's a gap between the reporting of cases and deaths. Hopefully, the decrease in cases will be reflected in a decrease in deaths soon. However, the number of cases has increased in some of the older age groups over the last couple of weeks. As we know, older people are more likely to die.

Covid cases in the UK have peaked for 2021, real-world data from King's College London (KCL) suggests.

Researchers behind the Zoe Covid Study from KCL said there are currently 88,592 new daily symptomatic cases of Covid in the UK on average, according to test data from up to five days ago – down 4.7 per cent from the previous week.

But the World Health Organisation warned that, despite the positive data, Europe is on track to see 450,000 deaths by February as it again becomes the epicentre of the pandemic.

Countries including Germany, Croatia, Russia and Slovenia have reported record numbers of new cases, while hospitals in Romania and Belarus are on the brink of collapse amid a surge in new Covid admissions.

Calistemon

Oh dear.

I didn't realise that. I know very few obese children, perhaps one or two in DGC's primary school, certainly not the norm.

About a third of children in Year 6 are overweight or obese.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/childhood-obesity-applying-all-our-health/childhood-obesity-applying-all-our-health

There's a very strong correlation between obesity and deprivation. There are regional differences.

Seems strange to think that, a few months ago, we were celebrating the fact that there were no deaths one day…..

About a third of children in Year 6 are overweight or obese.

I can think of only one in DGC's school but the child is quite sporty too.
It must be regional as you say.

Urmstongran I watch your posts with fascination. You seem so keen to highlight any deficit in Europe yet seem blinded to UK struggles. Can I draw your attention to UK daily cases and death numbers as reported via Worldometer. The UK has failed to reduce it case numbers below 25.000 since 7th July actually. Deaths run at 1000 or thereabouts each week. Yet Europe and in particular France, Spain, Italy and Germany have have cases consistently below10,000 until now. So please before you jump on the Europe bashing bandwagon, consider the facts. The UK has a lot to explain with its high Covid numbers for months!

Just to clarify, the WHO report includes the UK, it’s not the EU they are talking about?

Fifty-something countries in Europe.

www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/country-information

Growstuff: If you just look at the last few weeks, I agree the trend is upwards but if you look at the longer series I presented, there was a valley shape. The last item was still lower than the first.

We can agree that the next few weeks of my series will probably be upwards although this may be short-lived and hopefully not the bleak outlook suggested by Sage in mid September.

Calistemon

^About a third of children in Year 6 are overweight or obese^.

I can think of only one in DGC's school but the child is quite sporty too.
It must be regional as you say.

You can check the rate for your constituency here:

obesityhealthalliance.org.uk/data-map/

The average for England and Scotland is 22.4%
Wales 26.4%

Eh? GN just posted the wrong message. What's going on?