COVID cases on the brink of breaking 100k a day (Zoe Covid Study)

Zoe figures today

Estimated new cases 92400
Estimated active cases 1151000

I wasn’t going to post for a while but in the face of such scaremongering and pile ons I’m going to break my own rule. Where shall I start?

Tegnell is clearly not a sensible “expert” to quote on this matter. However, Spiegelhalter this week pointed out that the deaths within 28 days of a test overestimates the number of deaths in which Covid is a significant factor. However it is balanced out by the ONS measure and by the excess deaths measure, as has always been the case through the whole pandemic. So arguing forcibly that people who say that the 28-day measure is an overestimate are covid deniers is not only a complete over-reaction but also wrong. It’s not rot, daft or rubbish, its true.

ONS measures then. Are the government underplaying the amount of infection in this country? Every measure is exactly the same as it has been thought the whole pandemic. Nobody is hiding cases. The number of laboratory confirmed cases is useful for identifying trends. The government are not underplaying the levels of infection.
Deaths and hospitalisations still going up and that’s what’s important? Well they both peak about 3-4 weeks after the number of cases peak, so they’ll probably continue to rise for a couple of weeks yet. Cases are falling because its half term? Probably. Vaccinating 12 – 15 year olds probably comes into it as well.

And much as you might like us to ignore the economic and mental health impacts of the pandemic, we can’t. Pointing them out isn’t denying that there’s a problem, its acknowledging that this is a more complicated situation than many of us think.

Shall we stop testing so much? Germany is planning on stopping free testing. Seems to be working fine over there. I do have some thoughts on what would happen if everyone with the symptom of “sneezing” in October suddenly turned up wanting a PCR test, but it’s pretty obvious to anyone who thinks it through.

And finally. “India all over again”. It might have escaped some people’s notice that COP26 is in Scotland, where we still have face masks and vaccine passports for large events. Where negative tests will be required of the delegates every day. Where 1m social distancing will be in force. There will probably be a spike. We’ll get on with it.

Now please go ahead and accuse me of killing grannies, denying Covid and ignoring the plight of school children. I’m sure you will.

Who is scaremongering Alegrais? Posters are, like you, putting forward what they know and what they think. No one knows everything; we all know some things.

I am not sure how, starting a post with a pejorative comment really helps our understanding.

PippaZ

Who is scaremongering Alegrais? Posters are, like you, putting forward what they know and what they think. No one knows everything; we all know some things.

I am not sure how, starting a post with a pejorative comment really helps our understanding.

I paraphrase:

learning to live with it - does that mean learning to die of it

government are downplaying the number of infections

Russian Roulette

India all over again!

Someone I know that has been posting pictures of going to lots of events that I wouldn’t dream of going to has just said her DH has covid. Probably caught from someone who was sat next to him at a gig who had caught it from (you guessed it) his school age child. This scenario must be playing out all over the country. I would assume he’s double vaccinated. Strangely enough (albeit on a somewhat larger scale) I was watching the IOW Festival on Sky Arts last night and thinking yet another superspreader event. Wonder how many other people at the gig my friend went to have caught it too. Every time, feeling envious of people living seemingly normal lives, I resolve to get out more, something like this happens.

No one is saying that everyone who sneezes should ask for a PCR test. But they should do a lateral flow test so they don’t pass the virus onto other people, some of whom might be at risk of severe illness. However, they won’t because the government, for some reason known only to themselves don’t seem to want to update the current covid symptoms. If my daughter hadn’t’ve been testing her boys so regularly the eldest would have probably gone on to infect others, including his parents and his brother. And, in the process prevented some children at his school from having their vaccine. That one lateral flow test possibly prevented many people from having covid. And yet people seem to mock how careful our family are being and have been since the pandemic began.

I have been through all the pages and cannot see where anyone says learning to live with it - does that mean learning to die of it Alegrais.

I appreciate you said you were paraphrasing. However, you know as well as I do you do not misquote in this way when you are using it as evidence to support an accusation.

Perhaps you could quote the actual words used from the posts and not just tell us how you chose to read them.

MayBee70

No one is saying that everyone who sneezes should ask for a PCR test. But they should do a lateral flow test so they don’t pass the virus onto other people, some of whom might be at risk of severe illness. However, they won’t because the government, for some reason known only to themselves don’t seem to want to update the current covid symptoms. If my daughter hadn’t’ve been testing her boys so regularly the eldest would have probably gone on to infect others, including his parents and his brother. And, in the process prevented some children at his school from having their vaccine. That one lateral flow test possibly prevented many people from having covid. And yet people seem to mock how careful our family are being and have been since the pandemic began.

I don't know how it is in rUK but in Scotland we're asked to do two LFTs a week irrespective of symptoms. I think rUK is the same. If you have started sneezing, doing an LFT won't be enough to diagnose it if you already have COVID and so you need a PCR.

So people with symptoms need a PCR. The best way of predicting that you have COVID is is you have one or more of the three main symptoms. You might have the others, but they are indicative of so many other conditions that asking anybody who has started sneezing or who has a headache to behave as though they have COVID will paralyse the country.

PippaZ

I have been through all the pages and cannot see where anyone says learning to live with it - does that mean learning to die of it Alegrais.

I appreciate you said you were paraphrasing. However, you know as well as I do you do not misquote in this way when you are using it as evidence to support an accusation.

Perhaps you could quote the actual words used from the posts and not just tell us how you chose to read them.

PippaZ Fri 29-Oct-21 19:36:03

But what do you mean by "learn to live with it". When I read that it comes over as is you are saying we must learn to live as if it's not there, i.e., learn to die with it.

Thank you for your posts Alegrias1 reasoned and knowledgeable as always ?

Thank you Alegrias.

So I made a completely open statement to which anyone could have replied and explained that what I was hearing was not what they meant. How is that scaremongering?

May I just ask what outcome you hoped for from your post of Sat 30-Oct-21 10:43:05?

Alegrais, could you also post the other quotes in full so everyone has the possibility of replying to your accusation?

I don’t understand this learning to live with it. When the pandemic first started my initial reaction was to do everything possible to not catch it until more was learned about it and effective treatments, preventatives were found. Which has since happened. Now, having been vaccinated and soon to have my booster, I’m probably going to go out and about more but still be very careful throughout the winter, especially when infection rates are still high. No theatre or cinema visits for me. To learn to live with it, imo means learning how to not die from it. The people I know that use that phrase the most seem to be living as if there isn’t a pandemic. That isn’t learning to live with it, it’s just trying to ignore the fact that it’s happening. And it is Russian roulette in the way that someone young and incredibly fit and healthy can be as badly affected as someone old and with underlying health conditions. Which, to me, is the most scary part of it.

"Learning to live with it" and "getting back to normal" are slogans that can mean anything to anyone MayBee.

For some people "Learning to live with it" seems to mean ignoring the virus and going back to exactly how they used to live with no mitigations in place.

For others, it seems to mean being ultra-cautious and staying quite close to the most severe conditions we have been asked to keep to over the last nearly two years.

In the middle I see those who see it as meaning moving forward and accepting there will be changes in how we live and that for some time we have to take certain mitigating measures.

The difficulty is that chiming out "Learning to live with it" doesn't help any discussion when it is not defined.

Well PippaZ the other quotes were mostly verbatim so I’m sure everyone will be able to identify their own comments easily. And of course I’m sure it’s entirely possible that everybody will come along and say “well its obvious” or “that’s not what I meant”. Which, in my view, displays a breath-taking lack of understanding about how the language we use affects the feelings others might have, and how constantly reading only negative and exaggerated things can have a disproportionate effect on the way we view a situation.

So I won’t be justifying why I posted, other than to say that inflammatory and inaccurate comments deserve to be called out.

Can I say something about “living with it”? There is a vocal group here who shout down or question anybody who says that we have to live with it, condemning them as covid deniers who just want people to die so that they can go to the pub. Well I agree with your post of 12:25. Because there is no alternative to living with it, it’s not going away.

My grandsons covid infection was picked up before he showed any symptoms on the LFT.

MayBee70

My grandsons covid infection was picked up before he showed any symptoms on the LFT.

Because that's how LFTs work and what they are for.

alegrais you misunderstood my comment about India. Obviously I should have been clearer, although I suspect maybe who I was answering understood it perfectly.

Learning to live with it if you are retired offers you the choice to shop on line, gives you the option of being selective where you go and who you meet up with.

Learning to live with it if you run a SME means ensuring a safe working environment for you and your staff whilst carrying on running the company in profit which in turns means that you do not have to let go of any staff.

Learning to live with it if you have school age children means letting them go to school to learn but also letting them socialise with their peers which they need for their self esteem/mental health and for the primary children it’s all part of learning how to socialise and belong to society.

Learning to live with it to me means all of the above, I have had three Pfizer vaccines, I look after GC (two of which along with parents are temporarily living here), I do not use public transport but have used taxis and worn a face covering . I eat out regularly, I have been to the cinema and worn a mask, I have been into supermarkets, local shops, our County Town and nearby big shopping mall all whilst wearing a face

Live is for living, it’s not a dress rehearsal you only get one chance, it is for us all to make our own choices on how we wish to go about our daily lives.

because there is no alternative to living with it, it’s not going away
Thems the words.

I thought you meant that Johnson was delaying bringing in restrictions in a timely way because he wanted the limelight, same as he did back in April.

Alegrias1

MayBee70

My grandsons covid infection was picked up before he showed any symptoms on the LFT.

^Because that's how LFTs work and what they are for.^

My two primary age nieces and BiL had positiveLFT’s, my sisters was negative. They have just had PCR test results back, children are positive, both double jabbed parents are negative.

Well done Pfizer.

My goodness since posting Zoe figures this morning they have now reached

Estimated new cases 92700
Estimated live cases 1174000

Scotland seems to be doing better, almost certainly because of the mitigation that they have in place. Ireland doesnt appear to provide sufficient data to be able to provide any estimation.

^ displays a breath-taking lack of understanding about how the language we use affects the feelings others might have^

I wonder if you have the modesty to admit that applies to you too?

Spiegelhalter also wrote:

"There have been many claims Covid-19 has been incidental to many people’s deaths. When Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in the first wave, it was the underlying cause of mortality for more than nine in 10 registrations. That changes somewhat when the virus becomes rarer, with the proportion dying “with” Covid-19 at 32% in late April 2021. When there is less virus around, cases tend to be less severe, though the present infection was considered to have contributed to the death in some way.

It is rare for there to be only one primary cause of death. In the first wave there were pre-existing conditions in 91% of deaths involving Covid-19, with dementia and Alzheimer’s disease present in 25%."

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/10/covid-by-numbers-10-key-lessons-separating-fact-from-fiction

Yes, it is absolute rot to claim that most people have died with Covid, not of Covid.