COVID cases on the brink of breaking 100k a day (Zoe Covid Study)

He isn’t undermining the public’s faith in the medical profession. No one has advocated the need for vaccinations as much as he has. Also mask wearing last year.

Thank you for the link Daisymae[Sun 31-Oct-21 15:07:42]. It's good to listen to someone who knows the subject inside and out.

If not reporting is part of the problem, I am not surprised. So many people think they know everything simply because there has been such little leadership from the government.

Thanks also to growstuff [Sun 31-Oct-21 15:39:03], for the link to the article in the BMJ. As this also discusses possible reasons for the difference between the ZOE and official figures. The experts to see good reasons to ask questions about these anomalies.

It also comments on the poor work at some labs - typical of how this government has run things, sadly.

Growstuffs report [Sun 31-Oct-21 15:33:58] on the attitude to herd immunity mentioned in the JCVI minutes just saps me of any confidence I had left in this government, I'm afraid.

I worry that we could get a sudden uptick in the figures reporting deaths and hospitalisations. I am afraid we will get to a point where there are a large number who no longer trust the government or its figures because of their poor management of this area - and that doesn't bear thinking about. That is not scaremongering. We have all seen, very recently, what happens if a small but "big enough" part of the population lose confidence in the government.

You're correct Maybee70, Campbell , not Spector.

growstuff

Has anybody else read the JCVI minutes, which have just been released? They confirm that the intention was/is to infect children in an attempt to achieve herd immunity. One member refers to schools as an "opportunity" for children to be infected.

Well, if that was the intent it seems to be working round here.
⅘ of one of the DGC's class were off before half-term, either with Covid, isolating because a sibling had it or feeling unwell and waiting for PCR test results.
That is after the debacle with false negative PCR results being sent out.

Perhaps half-term will prove to have been a 'firebreak'.

Maybee you must be worried, I hope your grandson improves soon.

The ⅘ in above post was supposed to be four-fifths but appeared differently.

Alegrias1
got any more Meryl Streep
I don’t think you need my contribution. Your doing very well.

growstuff
As someone stated that they are at breaking point and still reading this thread I won’t be posting my thoughts on the nurse educator

I’m at breaking point because of my missing, possibly stolen passport and not being able to speak to anyone at the passport office having been on the phone three times for an hour and then being cut off! Two days running. Which is all down to the inefficiency of this pathetic government. And having to watch that scruffy scarecrow buffoon of a PM representing me on the world stage.Dr John is a beacon of sanity in my world at the moment. I feel that I have more control over covid ( thanks to said Dr) than my missing possibly stolen passport. And that’s saying something!

MayBee70
I believe you said some time ago that you wanted to live a normal life. And yet from your posts it indicates that your life revolves around covid which looks like it is controlling you.

Before you go, maybe you can explain to everyone else on here how the nurse educator is really good at using other people's data and pretending he has something to do with it, has an obsession about aspiration and has suddenly become very defensive about the BBC questioning his veracity. Alegrias1 [Sun 31-Oct-21 16:11:26]

It seems odd that someone intent on convincing us of her academic qualifications - but not telling us what they are - thinks it strange for an educator the extrapolate from verifiable data. Isn't it an academics and lecturers job to be able to interpret other people's data and present it in a way that aids the understanding of others? That he does it in such an accessible way is to his credit and is probably why he has done as well as he has. Sadly, none of us on here have his level of background knowledge and ability in this subject, as far as I can see, so it is useful that he, and all the others we refer to, have chosen to share with others at this time.

I have no idea of your education or your career Alegrais but you seem to expect everyone to believe what you say. This man's education and career are out there for all to see. I admire the inquisitive mind and the continual acquisition of knowledge he has shown. I think it's appalling that you suggest he makes out "he has something to do with it". Like all good academics, he refers to his source. That comment must edge on libel. And after the "nurse-educator" put-down, let's have your qualifications and academic background to see how it compares when we are talking fact not tasteless attempts to denigrate.

MayBee

the extrapolate to extrapolate

MerylStreep

MayBee70
I believe you said some time ago that you wanted to live a normal life. And yet from your posts it indicates that your life revolves around covid which looks like it is controlling you.

I said I had more control over covid than my missing, possibly stolen passport. Which isn’t saying much!

MerylStreep

MayBee70
I believe you said some time ago that you wanted to live a normal life. And yet from your posts it indicates that your life revolves around covid which looks like it is controlling you.

MayBee's posts don't indicate that at all! However, anybody who think they can just ignore Covid or fight it like they would an invading army really should have their bumps felt. People are fond of saying we should "live with it". That means recognising it's still there and taking precautions. That's not being controlled.

MayBee You've probably done this already, but you can report a lost passport online:
www.gov.uk/report-a-lost-or-stolen-passport

PippaZ

^Before you go, maybe you can explain to everyone else on here how the nurse educator is really good at using other people's data and pretending he has something to do with it, has an obsession about aspiration and has suddenly become very defensive about the BBC questioning his veracity.^ Alegrias1 [Sun 31-Oct-21 16:11:26]

It seems odd that someone intent on convincing us of her academic qualifications - but not telling us what they are - thinks it strange for an educator the extrapolate from verifiable data. Isn't it an academics and lecturers job to be able to interpret other people's data and present it in a way that aids the understanding of others? That he does it in such an accessible way is to his credit and is probably why he has done as well as he has. Sadly, none of us on here have his level of background knowledge and ability in this subject, as far as I can see, so it is useful that he, and all the others we refer to, have chosen to share with others at this time.

I have no idea of your education or your career Alegrais but you seem to expect everyone to believe what you say. This man's education and career are out there for all to see. I admire the inquisitive mind and the continual acquisition of knowledge he has shown. I think it's appalling that you suggest he makes out "he has something to do with it". Like all good academics, he refers to his source. That comment must edge on libel. And after the "nurse-educator" put-down, let's have your qualifications and academic background to see how it compares when we are talking fact not tasteless attempts to denigrate.

I don't expect anyone to believe me about anything PippaZ. Like all academics worth their salt, I know that recourse to authority is not a valid way of proving anything. Irrespective of anyone's qualifications or reputation, it there are obvious logical flaws in their arguments, it's incumbent on the people who see them to point them out.

Dr Campbell consistently says "We're doing this" or "We think that." There's no "We" about it, but by expressing himself that way, he implies that he is complicit in the creation and analysis of the data. Maybe he doesn't mean to, but it enhances his reputation amongst his followers.

He is a nurse educator, and I suspect he's a very good one. However he is not an arbiter of public health information, no matter how personable he is.. Its interesting that you comment that none of us have his level of knowledge and ability in this subject. If you look up his background, you'll see he has no background whatsoever in epidemiology or data science.

I know. I was just hoping that someone might knock on my door today and say it had been pushed through their letter box. And I can’t speak to the courier company till tomorrow. The thing is, can I lose it if I never had it in the first place. And, if I report it lost do I then have to pay to replace it? And how can I give them the details of it (number etc) if I don’t know it! There is nothing on the government website about lost passport due to not fit for purpose Home Office using not fit for purpose courier service for several years and not doing anything about it. Methinks I’m going further and further down the rabbit hole. It’s like a Dickens circumlocution office. I just need Zebedee to tell me it’s ‘time for bed’. Which, as I didn’t sleep much last night, it probably is…..night night everyone….

Sounds like a good idea MayBee. I see the problem. Try to get some sleep (easier said than done sometimes) and hopefully you can get through to them soon.

I don't watch John Campbell's videos very often, but my understanding of "we" is "us, here in the UK", as I understand he has an audience in many different countries. I don't have the impression that he pretends to have anything to do with research or data.

My goodness on this thread Professor Spector has been trashed and now Dr. Campbell.

Quite extraordinary.

I have been looking at the official government figures and those provided by both the ONS and Zoe and frankly I am minded to agree that the government figures are inaccurate.

The argument over their inaccuracy is convincing imo.

It said in one paper that the government are saying people don’t want them to implement PlanB but that most people do. You wait, when COP 26 is over Johnson will change his mind.

You do know ONS is a government department, right?

Alegrias1

You do know ONS is a government department, right?

So why don’t the government agree with their own figures then? Or am I missing something here…?

Reading a report from various USA universities on the research into vaccine efficacy over time. A sample of a total of 2% of the US population, so a good size.

One thing I think would be very useful for those that are wondering about whether to have the booster or not is to make clear how the vaccine efficacy wanes over time. The % of course depends on the original vaccine given, but all certainly do wane. Now whether this translates into greater hospitalisation and death does not yet appear to clear, but there is evidence that the level of symptomatic disease and a-symptomatic PCR tests increases.

twitter.com/theAliceRoberts/status/1454491028770246660?t=Zdx3agB58vIVtCEQz3dBWQ&s=19 well, who would have ever considered that this could be policy?

Or am I missing something here…?

Yes. Sorry Maybee70 but that's my point. Different ways of measuring the numbers. The 41,000 is the daily measure of reported positives. The ONS numbers are a historical revised measure. Spector's numbers are a modelled estimate. They are all valid. They are going to differ. Using one to say another is wrong, then to claim that the government are lying, is either naive or malicious.