Brexit - the end of the beginning - the negotiations begin

So you admit defeat in the General Election durhamjen before even one vote has been cast, not confident in Jeremy Corbyn winning then, not surprised who would be.

Don't know that much about her background to say.
Any ideas, john?

Where do you get that idea, ninny?

This is interesting.

Macron has been ' doing the rounds ' saying 'The EU Must
Reform or Face 'FREXIT'.

France election: Macron says EU must reform or face 'Frexit'

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39766334

Of course he is only trying to take votes off of Le Penn , park his tank on her lawn so to speak.

Had the EU Commission, the top players such as the likes of Junker and Tusk, listened over many years and admitted to it's faults and concerns from the EU Parliament / the EU MEP's and indeed 'Reformed' we may never have the Referendum in the first place.

The EU Commission is not necessarily held in the same awe/respect as some GN posters and I think divisions may well come to light over a period of time. I hope so.

No, he hasn't Jen. Which, of course, was exactly my point.

All isn't as sweetness and light that they want us to believe. The eastern and southern states are not best pleased that they are going to have to up their payments to cover the shortfall or the richer states are going to have to stump up more.
Let's not forget the Greek 'problem' is looming, once again.
It's all going very well, isn't it
Has anyone read that the Spanish government has been lying to its people Re the level of its debt to the eu.

I agree with you in that one POGS. But to some extent the perceived arrogance is an inescapable consequence of a 28 partner structure. They had little option other than create the Commission and hand it substantial powers, and introduce a cumbersome legislation process with no any effective veto for individual states, and no practical means of reversing out of bad decisions in any sensible timeframe.

only a minor brat - try real brats like Rees Mog, Johnson and and Davis non of whom would give a tinkers if GB plc went belly up tomorrow and If you really want to see the ordinary people with whom I consort google my handle There a bit of bedtime reading for those who need to get a life

For years people - even top Europeans - have admitted that the EU needs some reform. Exactly what has yet to be decided- it was also said that they should drop for the foreseeable future the idea of abpn EU army of any sort as NATO was successfully filling the bill.
At the moment there are 28 States with 28 lots of grants etc being given. When UK leaves there will be only 27 so they will not need as much money for grants etc. That will gradually settle itself - it is only this current lot of funding which is being affected and that finishes in 2020.
The point is that the EU is at the moment the best we have for ensuring there is some form of peace. For hundreds of years Europe has had wars going on - one of the main reasons for forming the Union in the first place. That is a strong reason I think we should stay. We only need a trigger happy Prime Minister to find our young men embroiled again.

WW I think they will need more money - the UK put more in that it took out. I agree with what you say about peace in terms of relations between members, but EU relations with Russia is clearly an issue.
I'm sure Brexit will give them some impetus towards reform. Shame it needed us to leave.

I found the notes I mentioned before in a more readable format. It is thought this is a sort of official 'leak' .

1) May had said she wanted to talk not just Brexit but also world problems; but in practice it fell to Juncker to propose one to discuss.
2) May has made clear to the Commission that she fully expects to be re-elected as PM.
3) It is thought [in the Commission] that May wants to frustrate the daily business of the EU27, to improve her own negotiating position.
4) May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.
5) EU side were astonished at May's suggestion that EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June.
6) Juncker objected to this timetable as way too optimistic given complexities, eg on rights to health care.
7) Juncker pulled two piles of paper from his bag: Croatia's EU entry deal, Canada's free trade deal. His point: Brexit will be v v complex.
8) May wanted to work through the Brexit talks in monthly, 4-day blocks; all confidential until the end of the process.
9) Commission said impossible to reconcile this with need to square off member states & European Parliament, so documents must be published.
10) EU side felt May was seeing whole thing through rose-tinted-glasses. "Let us make Brexit a success" she told them.
11) Juncker countered that Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs union: "Brexit cannot be a success".
12) May seemed surprised by this and seemed to the EU side not to have been fully briefed.
13) She cited her own JHA opt-out negotiations as home sec as a model: a mutually useful agreement meaning lots on paper, little in reality.
14) May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.
15) ie as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience) then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit
16) "The more I hear, the more sceptical I become" said Juncker (this was only half way through the dinner)
17) May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because there is nothing to that effect in the treaties.
18) Her guests then informed her that the EU is not a golf club
19) Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.
20) ...leaving EU27 with UK's unpaid bills will involve national parliaments in process (a point that Berlin had made repeatedly before).
21) "I leave Downing St ten times as sceptical as I was before" Juncker told May as he left
22) Next morning at c7am Juncker called Merkel on her mobile, said May living in another galaxy & totally deluding herself
23) Merkel quickly reworked her speech to Bundestag to include her now-famous "some in Britain still have illusions" comment
24) FAZ concludes: May in election mode & playing to crowd, but what use is a big majority won by nurturing delusions of Brexit hardliners?
25) Juncker's team now think it more likely than not that Brexit talks will collapse & hope Brits wake up to harsh realities in time.
26) What to make of it all? Obviously this leak is a highly tactical move by Commission. But contents deeply worrying for UK nonetheless.
27) The report points to major communications/briefing problems. Important messages from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through.
28) Presumably as a result, May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27.
29) Also clear that (as some of us have been warning for a while...) No 10 should expect every detail of the Brexit talks to leak.
30/30) Sorry for the long thread. And a reminder: full credit for all the above reporting on the May/Juncker dinner goes to the FAZ.

" The eu commission boss ( junker) conceded there are serious disagreements within the club ( at least he got that word right) over how Brussels should finance its gargantuan needs without briton which are threatening to shatter the current calm"

Considering you are always telling us about how cosmopolitan you are, petra, You'd think you should be able to spell Juncker properly.

FAZ stands for: The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung ... one of Germany's leading newspapers apparently.

This is a link to the story they ran based on the dinner party as reported above. This is not from the English language edition, Chrome translated it into English for me.

I hope it's still in English if you follow the link!

www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/brexit/eu-kommission-skeptisch-vor-brexit-verhandlungen-14993673.html

14) May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.
15) ie as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience) then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit

I have seen an explanation of that. Apparently there were 130 measures and EU member countries were allowed to opt out of them all, then opt in to the ones they felt applied to them. As I recall TM opted back in to about 35. The explanation I saw emphasised that the opt out/opt back in was built into the process of agreeing to these regulations. The situation was nothing like Brexit.

If I can find the explanation again I'll post it.

Surprised at 'Briton ' Petra

durhamjen
Your little green eyed monster is rearing its ugly head again

I think junker rhymes better with drunker, is that right petra?

WW - sounds like a bit of a train crash! But there will be compromise options if both sides want them. For example, it also sounds as though the EU may accept we have no legal obligation to pay the leaving bill. If we agree to do so, and I would think we will subject to reasonable quid pro quo, we might shake on a transitional deal whereby the current trading arrangements last for an additional period while detailed terms are agreed. Not saying that's the way forward, but just an example as to how things could be made to work for both sides. But as things stand the EU position seems to be (1) agree the bill first, together with other exit arrangements, (2) then start on trade talks which will in any event take much more that the full two years let alone whatever is left after other discussions (3) in the meantime don't talk to any other country about a trade deal.
She may well be making a hash of it (looks like she is) but she can't just settle for the above without some attempt at finding a solution that works for everyone.
To be honest, the EU ought to see that a bad deal for the UK could prove much worse for europe than simply affecting EU trade. We all need to ensure good relations between the EU and UK in respect of issues like defence and security as a minimum. If the EU turn the screws over Brexit that would be grist to the mill for ukip/eurosceptic rhetoric and could lead to a very anti-EU government.

Someone in the Cabinet - Davis I think - has already said that Uk will pay it's bill - he thinks it will be necessary and the EU have already said they will agree to a transitional period after Brexit. This was all said a few weeks ago,

* jalima1108*
Or, I'll abbreviate it to junk as in 'articles that are considered useless or of little value'

I wonder what the odds are for a no deal. Worth a look.

It seems to me quite likely that we will end up with either no deal or a very bad deal.

The important question is the "meaningful choice" offered either to parliament or the electorate in those circumstances. Would it be the option of falling off the cliff and resorting to WTO rules or the far more sensible choice of staying in the EU?.

Already many who voted Leave are regretting it, but how many more will feel like that when they know what we may actually be faced with?

Looks as if there may be a big stumbling block before talks really start - May sees no problem with the EU nationals in UK - they can immediately start being treated as outside the EU nationals are - getting nothing and short term Visas only. The same of course would apply to UK Nationals in the EU.
The EU stance is that everyone retains the same rights as they do now.

I noticed that, Welshwife.
Do you think she might change her mind and make a big song and dance about it before the election?

WW I thought all Davies said was that no way should the bill be £50bn, and that was before our own lawyers questioned whether it was a legal obligation at all? And the transitional arrangements suggested were limited and insufficient. In any event my point is simply that if everyone wants something that causes minimum harm, it surely can happen. But the EU have something of a punishment agenda in mind, which isn't surprising given their concern about other pro-exit parties in member states. I think that may be main barrier to a good deal for the UK rather than sloppy negotiating on the part of the UK team.