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Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

(185 Posts)
GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 22:42:27

YouGov estimate points to hung parliament with 20 fewer seats for May

Its only one poll but a very large one predicting a Conservative Party loss of 20 seats and Labour gain of nearly 30 leading to a hung parliament.

daphnedill Wed 31-May-17 14:29:14

There are still £12bn of cuts in the pipeline, so I don't see that they could cut much more. There will be a slight decrease in benefit payments, as increased pension ages work their way through the system.

We are all paying the price now for under-investment and a "rentier" economy..

Legs55 Wed 31-May-17 14:35:43

I do YouGov Polls on line. I do answer honestly but wonder if some don't or answer the questions based on their mood on the day ie if they've heard some-thing they don't like. I have done my Postal Vote so nothing will change my mind but I have in the past gone to vote wavering between 2 candidates only making my mind up when in the Polling Booth

daphnedill Wed 31-May-17 14:47:37

May thought that Thatcher said, "The lady's not for turning up."

Not sure where the 'up' came from.hmm

whitewave Wed 31-May-17 15:28:42

If this really is likely to happen it will definately worth voting tactically

Jaycee5 Wed 31-May-17 15:59:15

Legs55 I used to do YouGov polls but virtually never got asked any political questions and the number of points you have to get to receive any money is ridiculous. Someone online recommended Populus so I tried them and they don't ask as many questions when you sign up so I think that they are more balanced - and I have already had £100 after just a year. Their polls are also shorter. I got fed up with YouGov asking me about TV programmes.

Jaycee5 Wed 31-May-17 16:01:20

daphnedill I agree about the LVT. It is not in the manifesto but is something that Labour will consider. To call it a granny tax and throw out large figures that are based on an assumed rate and assumed threshold is ridiculous and just scaremongering.

Caroline64 Wed 31-May-17 16:34:37

I have always believed that the BBC was not biased politically - or not actively so. However for the first time I am getting annoyed by them and their determination to undermine Jeremy Corbyn. Now I am not a fan of his - I had never heard of him and think that Ed Balls or David Miliband would have made decent PMs... But I also studied Politics many moons ago and know full well that it is the Civil Servants that do most of the work of government. I will still be voting Lib Dem however!

ninny Wed 31-May-17 16:44:39

Never realised you got paid for Yougov polls. That's probably why they are never correct.

Jane10 Wed 31-May-17 16:48:17

I gave up in You Gov too. The format of questions seemed to funnel choices in a way I didn't like. I also got fed up with the the TV and shopping stuff. The money side of things could easily skew typical responders.

Jaycee5 Wed 31-May-17 17:28:55

Caroline64 I think that it is beginning to backfire. People are watching him speak now and then reading the papers or seeing news reports and not recognising the report of what they saw for themselves. It is making people aware of how unfair the press has been about him from the beginning.
Add to that the Tories strangely going to ground during this campaign, it has all been a little odd.
It feels as if this campaign has been going on for more than a few weeks.

GracesGranMK2 Wed 31-May-17 17:48:33

Caroline64 I agree about the bias in the BBC. Like you say they seemed to treat Jeremy Corbyn as a bit of a joke - which just shows that many people think what we have had for the past seven years could never have been different and that they do not know the feelings of the country.

Just as they misunderstood the EU referendum I feel they are misunderstanding this. I was so cross this morning that I rang to complain. They were commenting on the new poll and explaining what the Conservatives might get in terms of seats and said that "on a good day the might get (high number)" and "on a bad day (low number)". I pointed out that a high number of seats would not be a "good day" for those voting for other parties.

I don't think they have any concept that people think differently because they have the same sense of entitlement that the Conservatives do.

whitewave Wed 31-May-17 17:50:17

If you stop and think about it - I wonder about democracy in this country. Corbyn has up to now been totally drowned out by the entire media, and been subject to lies and innuendo since he became leader.

He has a few short weeks when he has had the opportunity to speak to people directly and look what is happening!!

Sadly I don't think he will have enough time to get his message across particularly with the gutter press and BBC bias.
Democracy is dying in this country.

newnanny Wed 31-May-17 17:55:16

I cant understand why neither party is saying much about the economy. In previous elections that was the main issue. Unemployment is falling and the economy continues to grow albeit not as fast as we would like and latest trade figures are strong yet we hear nothing of this from either party. May goes on and on about Brexit and Corbyn goes on and on about NHS and redistribution of wealth. I think in this election both main parties have tried to woo voters they do not normally get votes from; Corbyn is wooing elderly with triple lock and winter fuel payments and May is wooing young by only having double lock and means testing winter fuel payments. I don't think triple or double lock will make much difference as inflation figure will be used by both. I wonder what Nicola will have to say this evening in debate?

Poppsbaggie Wed 31-May-17 17:59:22

I believe, as do many, TM called this election because she thought she was going to get a hugely enlarged majority, even after saying, at least six times, that she would not do so "bad for stability" blah de blah, and then to introduce a 'dementia tax' was arrogance beyond belief. And I can't be the only one who objects to the assumption that as a pensioner, I will be voting Tory?

GracesGranMK2 Wed 31-May-17 18:10:44

I am sure the Conservatives do not want to get onto the economy as they have broken it except for the top few percent newnanny.

"Unemployment is falling". I don't think it is in the way that this would have meant at one time and I think anyone who is working, has children of grandchildren who are working will be aware of this. This is not entirely the fault of the Conservative Party but they have used and abused it to the advantage of pursuing their ideology.

"The economy continues to grow" Not very well for the sacrifices everyone has made! I think keeping quiet is what the Tories have decided to do as there has been plenty of reporting on the difficulties that will come with Brexit. Again, not entirely the fault of the Conservatives but May went all out to say we would do everything she thought would get her votes.

I don't think they want to make fools of themselves. They haven't even attempted to cost their manifesto. For once I think people - not all but many - are seeing the Conservatives for what they are - rubbish at running the economy if you consider the economy should be run for the sake of the citizens of this country.

GracesGranMK2 Wed 31-May-17 18:12:57

You are not Poppsbaggie and thankfully more are saying so. It's just arrogant to think votes are 'in the bag'

GracesGranMK2 Wed 31-May-17 18:32:23

Oh dear - you couldn't make it up! Theresa May is not taking part in the debate because ... she "would rather be out meeting voters".

So that would be only Conservative ones then, just as she has so far.

Poppsbaggie Wed 31-May-17 18:38:07

Indeed GGMK2. Although the figures for the last tv debate reached less than 3 million, that's rather more undecided voters than the lemmings that will turn up to hear her preaching to the converted. Hope it all comes back to bite her on the backside!

DorothyL Wed 31-May-17 18:46:35

Please please please don't let Theresa May and the Tories win this election.
Whoever replaces her (and let's face it, she's out), the Tories have for the last 7 years doubled national debt, foisted austerity on all of us, handed out perks and freebies to rich tax avoiders and are destroying our nhs, our schools, our country!

Meanwhile they are quite open about their plans for the future:
-No more money for the NHS (in fact they have plans to privatise it).
-Dementia tax to steal our homes and rob our kids of inheritance.
-Stop the winter fuel allowance.
-No promise not to raise income tax BUT tax cuts and inheritance tax cuts for corporations and the richest.
-Grammar schools to take us all back to the dreadful days of second class secondary modern education.
End school lunches and replace with 6.8p per child breakfast!
-Cut MORE police (they already cut 20,000!).
-Bring back fox hunting!!

For god's sake please don't vote for them - Vote Labour!
-

pollyperkins Wed 31-May-17 19:47:34

Here here Dorothy!

Poppsbaggie Wed 31-May-17 19:54:04

DorothyL. I'll second that. Grannies get out and vote, and get rid of the party of the rich and vote for a more equal society.

Jane10 Wed 31-May-17 20:54:58

Sigh.

Ana Wed 31-May-17 20:58:07

Double sigh...

And isn't it 'hear, hear'? The other version makes no sense.

POGS Wed 31-May-17 21:00:13

The so called ' dementia tax' keeps rearing it's head and I understand why.

BUT I am confused at times by those who feel it is a disgrace to take somebody's finances and property into the equation if they require residential care until £100.000.00 is left in their estate/finances when the figure is only £23.000.00 at present.

At the moment there are individuals in residential care, plenty of families over so many years sadly with their loved ones no longer alive , who are paying for their care, did pay for their care, until they will have / had the princely sum of £23.000.00 left in their name. Those individuals / families will be better off under the new proposal , if ever it came into play!

So the argument of finding it's a disgrace when the figure is 4 times higher baffles me.

I fully understand the argument and genuine concern of the proposal to make funding for ' home care ' as it is for ' residential care ' but is it not levelling the playing field so to speak?

Those who are not in the position of having property or finances over £100.000.00 will be in no worse a position .

We could all say care should be free , we could all say we want our hard earned finances to be our children's inheritance in full but as we post this not the case for many , under various governments and I reiterate I don't understand the voices that chastise a proposal to 'higher' the limit which is after all the proposal.

paddyann Wed 31-May-17 21:05:10

I see the I'm all right jack brigade are here ....scared a different government will want some of "their money" for benefits for all that seething mass of poverty ridden scum! There nothing worse than someone who has got on a wee bit in their life and forgets exactly WHERE they came from.