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Pollsters predict shock Tory Losses

(185 Posts)
GracesGranMK2 Tue 30-May-17 22:42:27

YouGov estimate points to hung parliament with 20 fewer seats for May

Its only one poll but a very large one predicting a Conservative Party loss of 20 seats and Labour gain of nearly 30 leading to a hung parliament.

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 21:26:56

POGS, we do not know what the dementia tax will do - unless you know something the rest of us don't.
The £100,000 was a floor; there is now also going to be a ceiling. Don't know what it is. Don't know what happens in the middle.

I read that the care amount will go down to £100,000 providing people take out private insurance, much of that organised by L&G, the company that Philip May works for.
Once the care system has taken its cut down to £100,000 the insurance company can take its share.

Dyffryn Wed 31-May-17 21:38:14

I truely hope the Poll is correct. I fear for the old, poor and sick people of this country. Don't tell me we cannot afford care. If we can afford Brexit we can afford to pay for the old, poor and sick.

durhamjen Wed 31-May-17 22:50:41

" Say Jeremy Corbyn had been the Home Secretary for six years, during which time he slashed some 20,000 police jobs taking us back to 1970s levels of per capita policing.
Let’s say he also slashed the UK Border Agency budget so that over a million people per month were coming and going through UK airports without being properly checked….
Let’s say by virtue of an extremely self-serving EU referendum non-campaign he managed to get into 10 Downing Street, where he kept up his agenda of cutting the UK security services and border agency.
Then there’s a home-grown terrorist attack by a known Islamist fanatic in a city where Corbyn had cut the police budget by £157 million.
Let’s say Jeremy Corbyn “lost” files on an internal paedophile ring.
Let’s say he wanted to take the homes from the elderly.
Let’s say he cut 30% of your loved one’s disabled benefit.
Let’s say he signed an arms deal with the (ISIS-funding) Saudis worth millions.
Let’s say he wanted to take away your child’s free school meal.
Let’s say he forced NHS staff to use food banks.
Let’s say he made so many cuts to the NHS that people are suffering waiting for ambulances and A&E doctors.
Let’s say he went against doctors, nurses, teachers, fire fighters, the armed forces…
Let’s say he took away funding for University for upcoming doctors and nurses.
Let’s say after all these cuts there’s still a deficit and he’d missed every target he’d set himself for reducing it.
What would you have to say about Jeremy Corbyn under these circumstances?
– And why then are you not saying those things about Theresa May and the Tories right now?
Surely, there is only one choice when you have this evidence in front of you? "

rosesarered Wed 31-May-17 23:38:33

Let's also say what the heck would the deficit be if there hadn't been any cuts.

POGS Thu 01-Jun-17 00:07:22

POGS,

"we do not know what the dementia tax will do - unless you know something the rest of us don't.

The £100,000 was a floor; there is now also going to be a ceiling. Don't know what it is. Don't know what happens in the middle."

Well as you said on another thread you have a relative in residential care, was it your mother-in-law?

Having been through the process of funding for residential care I would assume you are in the same position as many posters have found ourselves in and know the limit as it stands is £23.000.00.

As for your comment, "unless you know something we don't" then I have no idea what you mean , other than you are being sarcastic. I do know you and others have given 'far more ' commentary about the proposal than myself so I could ask "What do you know the rest of us don't".

I will stand by my post of 21.00 . I am confused by the position of some posters who have persistently complained and virtue signalled about the 'wealthy' not paying up, getting more than their fair share over the poorest in society yet they seem to be the ones who are all of a sudden finding this proposal, the triple lock possibly going outrageous.

If the remit of the proposal is the topic of debate, namely funding, it's a tad hypocritical in my opinion but that will no doubt be challenged by more sarcasm as has become par for the course .

Anya Thu 01-Jun-17 06:57:53

The national debt is higher now than it's ever been. The deficit is lower than it was.

The latter is lower because of increased borrowing.

Anyone can borrow. It takes raising your income to get out of debt and cutting down on expenditure. Sadly the cutting down is at the expense of the vulnerable, the disabled and the poor. Raising your income politically means investment and raising taxes, but that ain't popular, especially with the rich and super-rich. It also means getting companies to actually pay what they owe.

I'm not being sarcastic, I think if you look at my record on GN, politically at least, I simply address the issues.

whitewave Thu 01-Jun-17 07:03:09

Sadly when the Tories took office the economy was back into strong growth with the expectation that the extra receipts to the revenue would pay off the debt. Austerity cut growth dead in its tracks.

The Tories are useless when it comes to the economy

Anya Thu 01-Jun-17 07:39:33

WW you won't convince those who get their facts from dubious sources.

The facts are all published in government websites for all to see, but those who just read certain papers or listen to uninformed friends and family will be totally ignorant of the true facts.

Anya Thu 01-Jun-17 07:40:20

I admit to being surprised myself when I read the figures.

mcem Thu 01-Jun-17 08:40:15

dj made several very specific points so roses how about choosing a few to address individually instead of yourvague and useless dismissal?

Marieeliz Thu 01-Jun-17 08:57:49

To all you Lefties and Guardian readers on this thread. Can you not see how bankrupt the country would be if Corbin did everything he says he will do? Same old same old they get in spend all the money we haven't got and then Conservatives have to come in and try and pull things back. By the way why do you keep calling them Tories, and Socialists not Socialists, it should either be that or Conservatives and Labour. That debate last night was filled with Labour supporters usual for these debates and I am not surprised T.May would not take part in it. You will all come ranting now. Luckily I am off to Canada for two weeks. I have already voted though.

GracesGranMK2 Thu 01-Jun-17 09:02:09

Sadly when the Tories took office the economy was back into strong growth with the expectation that the extra receipts to the revenue would pay off the debt. Austerity cut growth dead in its tracks.

The Tories are useless when it comes to the economy

I agree with Anya that you will not convince many of those who have been brainwashed by our media but this truth should be repeated at regular intervals. One or two may listen.

GracesGranMK2 Thu 01-Jun-17 09:06:52

Marieeliz give me the figures that prove this and I will agree with you otherwise what you are expressing is a prejudice - it is not fact.

Do you think the economy of Canada is bankrupt - it is not.
Do you think the economy of Sweden is bankrupt - far from it.

So why do you thing that spending the same percentage of GDP as Canada and far, far less than Sweden, in order to expand our infrastructure and therefore our income will have such a dire outcome? You do not know and you cannot say but you still expect us to accept your prejudice (an opinion not based on fact).

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 09:33:44

That debate last night was NOT filled with Labour supporters. They explained at the beginning how they got their audience. Strangely, Boris thinks that, too.
All the Cambridge seats are Tory with Libdem being in the best position to take the seats. So where on earth they got all these Labour supporters from, I don't know, although I do know people who live there who are socialist. They weren't there.

rosesarered Thu 01-Jun-17 09:41:45

If they say that it was a properly divided into groups audience then I believe them,
The answer lies in the eagerness of Corbyn supporters to be as noisy as possible
As in the audience for the Paxman interviews.They just make the most noise.

varian Thu 01-Jun-17 09:56:57

We went to a local hustings as we have done at previous general elections. Usually all the candidates have supporters who cheer them on. This time there hardly seemed to be any Tories in the audience. The other candidates all spoke well and were applauded a lot, especially the LibDem who is the main challenger.

The only time the Tory, who has been the MP since 2015, got any applause was when he said he had rebelled against the government because he wanted to admit more refugees and supported the Dubbs amendment.

In spite of this, I expect he will win. There is no UKIP candidate and the Greens and Labour will get votes which might have helped the LibDem to win. This audience was not selected by the BBC. The usual Tory supporters didn't turn up because they are smug and complacent.

Maggiemaybe Thu 01-Jun-17 10:28:47

I have no reason to doubt that last night's debate had, as stated at the start, a carefully chosen balanced audience. Do you really think they were lying, Marieeliz? Corbyn does have some very loud enthusiastic supporters, but I also think he represented the Labour party well last night and deserved the support he got. Others on the panel did their job too - Tim Farron was well prepared and Leanne Wood and Caroline Lucas got their points over. I felt quite sorry for Amber Rudd for being put in the difficult position of having to speak for Theresa May and for having to defend her absence, but she didn't do well, in my opinion.

whitewave Thu 01-Jun-17 10:37:01

Jeers for Rudd, cheers for Corbyn.

I fervently hope it translates into votes.

See the Daily Trash and Telegraph are going into hysterics - lies? What lies?

whitewave Thu 01-Jun-17 10:41:26

Oh oh oh

Gap narrowed to 3 points. I dont dare hope

Ana Thu 01-Jun-17 10:44:30

Calm down...you know what you were like last time.

sarahellenwhitney Thu 01-Jun-17 11:01:17

GracesGranMK2
'e' maybe be a Cornish boyo!grin

angelab Thu 01-Jun-17 11:03:45

These polls scare me - after what's happened in recent times I sincerely hope they're not completely wrong again.

Maggiemaybe Thu 01-Jun-17 11:34:41

We'll know soon enough, angelab. shock

durhamjen Thu 01-Jun-17 11:40:55

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/01/why-young-voters-are-backing-jeremy-corbyn-labour

To cheer you up, angelab.

whitewave Thu 01-Jun-17 11:48:43

Reading and listening to those supporting Labour -it seems to me that they have lost and will continue to loose far more under the hammer of the Tories than the wealthy will ever do under Labour