The Brexit Effect

MerylStreep

halfpint1

I visited Yorkshire just before the referendum and was staggered by the anti Europe rhetoric spouted by my friends

Probably because they understood how bad CAP payments are to farming and how corrupt the whole system is.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220303559

I'm sure they were heavily influenced by a paper in Science Direct published 4 years after the referendum.

varian

So quite a lot of leave voters now see that they were wrong.

Wrong? Why do you need such extreme language. I certainly didn't like it when we were being told, by the "leave" extremists, that voting remain was wrong.

People have made decisions on the information they believed they could rely on. They have changed that decision as they acquired more and different information from sources, they could believe in.

The "remain" extremists on here still seem affronted by the fact that some did not see them as an acceptable source of information. So, we go back to the insulting idea that those who don't agree are less educated. These different groups - generally but not entirely older, have all lived through their own view of history. It is just as likely that this has set bias in place for each of us.

Just as it is in politics, the extremists - the "I know bests" are a minority at either end of the spectrum. The rest are still questioning and wondering where we go from here. Many of them will not want an 'either or' extreme. Somehow, we have to move forward, and you will never do that without those at and around the middle ground. That is never cut and dried, never easy, but then who told the extremists that life was, or should be, easy for them?

The reason so many can now see that they were wrong to believe the lies told by the Leave campaigners is because all the evidence shows that the country has been damaged by brexit. It was clearly the wrong decision.

This is hardly an extreme position unless you think it is extreme to prefer facts to fiction.

MaizieD

MerylStreep

halfpint1

I visited Yorkshire just before the referendum and was staggered by the anti Europe rhetoric spouted by my friends

Probably because they understood how bad CAP payments are to farming and how corrupt the whole system is.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220303559

I'm sure they were heavily influenced by a paper in Science Direct published 4 years after the referendum.

The EU CAP system is very flexible each nation chooses the options relevant to them, obviously Greece and Italy have different ideas to the UK. Within the UK we had 4 different systems, the Scottish system was straightforward with few problems. Wales and NI also had their own.
England introduced highly complex environmental schemes, at 3 levels, unsurprisingly very few farmers entered them. This was nothing to do with the EU, it was our own DEFRA and Natural England that caused the mess.

The new post Brexit system is much more practical and take up seems fairly good, although funding has been halved

I think anyone is extreme who believes their view is the only "right" view. Those on the extreme of any view rarely seem to know that is what they are.

Using "lack or education" or "believing the lies" is pejorative and lazy. Such terms are used instead of thinking through what people mean and why they think it.

I think people can see it was wrong is because it’s now affecting them. Whereas, pre referendum the people that warned against it, not because it would affect them personally ( eg Ireland) but because it would affect other were just classed as project fear.

although funding has been halved

That's a problem, isn't it, Katie59? The EU farm payments made up an extremely substantial part of smaller farmers' income. They needed it because of the pressure to keep food prices low. Without the payment they would have struggled to exist.

Halving the UK substitute payments seems to be a very shortsighted move, especially in the current climate of very expensive foodstuffs and fertilizers. Is it designed to drive small farmers out of business and to let the huge 'agribusinesses' take over, I wonder.

It is, of course, a typical tory move, take away people's money and they'll become more efficient... I think we're going to see more of that today... (got to or I'd 😭)

Payments are a large part of ALL farmers income, large businesses have large fixed costs, currently it’s the cost of fuel, fertilisers and chemicals thats foremost, along with labour.
We visited a large local veg grower in August on a farm walk where he showed us his new salad growing system. Curious I checked his 2020 accounts on company check, on a turnover of £14m the surplus was less than £50k.

In today's "i" newspaper there is an excellent arcticle by Ian Dunt entitled "The unmentionable B-word".

He relates how the seldom discussed disadvantages of brexit are grinding down the UK. The trouble for Sunak and Hunt and indeed all of us, is that the benefits of brexit have so far proved illusory, while the disadvantages are grinding this country into the earth. The fall in GDP growth. A fall in European imports. A fall in investment.

Our economic woes cannot be blamed solely on covid and the war in Ukraine - which have also affected other countries.

He finishes by writing "It's only here that we live under the Brexit omerta, unable to speak freely about the cause of our hardship. The problem isn't political. It's not about revenge on Leavers or vindication for Remainers. It is practical. You cannot solve a problem unless you are able to clearly and explicitly evaluate it. And right now we lack the basic ability to do that. So instead we plunge into another period of pain, without the words to even describe why it is happening. We are the victims of a conspiracy we've launched against ourselves."

^ We are the victims of a conspiracy we've launched against ourselves."^

I think that the word 'conspiracy' is forbidden, as well as the word 'fact', varian....

I expect someone has already mentioned the fact that the BoE Governor stated that Brexit is a significant factor in slowing growth in the U.K.

Time to join the SM and CU

Whitewavemark2

I expect someone has already mentioned the fact that the BoE Governor stated that Brexit is a significant factor in slowing growth in the U.K.

Time to join the SM and CU

Hunt just announced abolishing import duty on many products, directly at odds to any Customs Union and may cause issues for export to EU.

Katie59

Whitewavemark2

I expect someone has already mentioned the fact that the BoE Governor stated that Brexit is a significant factor in slowing growth in the U.K.

Time to join the SM and CU

Hunt just announced abolishing import duty on many products, directly at odds to any Customs Union and may cause issues for export to EU.

He also pointed out that we have a shortage of skilled workers. Nothing to do with brexit of course.

Most of our brightest young people go to university with the aim of becoming a “manager” far too few want to become a “worker”. We are desperate for technicians, scientists and engineers, it’s time higher education offered courses that the country needs not what students fancy doing.

Katie59

Payments are a large part of ALL farmers income, large businesses have large fixed costs, currently it’s the cost of fuel, fertilisers and chemicals thats foremost, along with labour.
We visited a large local veg grower in August on a farm walk where he showed us his new salad growing system. Curious I checked his 2020 accounts on company check, on a turnover of £14m the surplus was less than £50k.

The farmer would be better off selling up and becoming a BTL landlord.

Katie59

Most of our brightest young people go to university with the aim of becoming a “manager” far too few want to become a “worker”. We are desperate for technicians, scientists and engineers, it’s time higher education offered courses that the country needs not what students fancy doing.

Is that your personal theory? It isn’t borne out by the courses on offer in universities? What courses do you see young people doing which indicates they want to become managers - my experience in the NHS indicates that’s the last thing most young professionals want to do because it’s too much hassle for little personal or financial reward. I think we’re more in the era of the specialist, people want niche jobs in their field of choice, and to become experts in that field.

MY OH runs an MRes course at a Russell Group uni for biochemists to work in industry.

Casdon

Katie59

Most of our brightest young people go to university with the aim of becoming a “manager” far too few want to become a “worker”. We are desperate for technicians, scientists and engineers, it’s time higher education offered courses that the country needs not what students fancy doing.

Is that your personal theory? It isn’t borne out by the courses on offer in universities? What courses do you see young people doing which indicates they want to become managers - my experience in the NHS indicates that’s the last thing most young professionals want to do because it’s too much hassle for little personal or financial reward. I think we’re more in the era of the specialist, people want niche jobs in their field of choice, and to become experts in that field.

Not just me, politicians and employers are constantly lamenting the lack of technical skills amongst graduates

growstuff

Katie59

Payments are a large part of ALL farmers income, large businesses have large fixed costs, currently it’s the cost of fuel, fertilisers and chemicals thats foremost, along with labour.
We visited a large local veg grower in August on a farm walk where he showed us his new salad growing system. Curious I checked his 2020 accounts on company check, on a turnover of £14m the surplus was less than £50k.

The farmer would be better off selling up and becoming a BTL landlord.

Not possible half the capital value would go in taxation and BTL is a hiding to nothing.

Hmmm ... not so sure about that. My ex has done very nicely out of BTL ... and still is, as far as I know. He no longer has mortgages.

Anyway, the point I was making is that £50k profit on £14m hardly makes it worth it. If not BTL, I'm sure he could think of an easier way of making money which didn't involve so much hard work.

Back to Brexit

Just 32 per cent of British voters now think the UK was right to leave the EU, a new poll has found.

The figure from pollster YouGov is the lowest on record and the latest continuation of a trend stretching back to last year.

A full 56 per cent now explicitly think Britain was wrong to leave

Katie59

Payments are a large part of ALL farmers income, large businesses have large fixed costs, currently it’s the cost of fuel, fertilisers and chemicals thats foremost, along with labour.
We visited a large local veg grower in August on a farm walk where he showed us his new salad growing system. Curious I checked his 2020 accounts on company check, on a turnover of £14m the surplus was less than £50k.

I doubt that you would have seen how much was taken out of the company in Directors' remuneration - pension premiums, salary, benefits in kind, such as cars and health care and dividends etc etc. The benefits in kind will be taxable but the company will have paid 100% of the cost and the director would have suffered probably 40%tax.

Shame many of that 56% couldn’t be bothered to vote at the time FleurPepper it would have made a real difference. As it is, we are where we are. It’s how democracy works.

Urmstongran

Shame many of that 56% couldn’t be bothered to vote at the time FleurPepper it would have made a real difference. As it is, we are where we are. It’s how democracy works.

6 years later,*Ug*, a considerable number of old Leave voters have died and 6 year's worth of 18 year olds have become voters. It's demographics.

Your glory days of Leave have gone...

Urmstongran

Shame many of that 56% couldn’t be bothered to vote at the time FleurPepper it would have made a real difference. As it is, we are where we are. It’s how democracy works.

Something like 3.5 million wouldn't have been old enough to vote in 2016. An equivalent number who voted leave have since died.