WW 3 ..is this the reality?

NormandygirlWhat was the provocation from Ukraine that led Russia to invade?

Ukraine is an independent state. Anything it does in its own borders, is nobody's business but theirs. They are entirely free to join NATO, the EU and any international organisation they choose. The fact that Russia would rather they didn't, is no reason for it to choose to invade the country.

Provocation is never a reason for invading another country that is not threatening (troops massed on borders, you know the kind of thing - what Russia was doing before it invaded).

Peace negotiations can only be based on Russia taking all its troops out of Ukraine and allowing them to regain their original peaceful autonomy with all the land within their international boundaries under the Ukraine government's governance.

As for the idea that the western leaders would push Zelensky to keep on a war that could lead to the world being destroyed by nuclear weapons is laughable.

Of course it would be the perfect solution to the climate crisis. Is that what you had in mind?

Greyduster

^Elegran*s post is not excellent because it it contains not one word about how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might be solved^. There is only one way that this conflict is going to be solved and that is by his own people getting rid of Putin, and if no-one inside the Kremlin is willing to take on that task, then no amount of running about on here shouting “the sky is falling” and turning inside out with anxiety is going to change a thing. Elegtan is right, if the s***t hits the fan we will be much more able to cope with the implications if we are a strong and stable and focussed nation rather than one that simply stands about wringing it’s hands at the prospect of war coming our way. Where would that have got us as a country eighty years ago? We didn’t have any real idea of how to deal with a power crazed dictator then, but what we didn’t do was panic!! The nation came together and did what it had to do! And before anyone chooses to point out to me that another war will probably not be a conventional one, does anyone really think that there is no-one in the Kremlin that will think, before Putin pushes the button, “Hang on a minute! How the hell have we allowed ourselves to get to this point?” I’m sorry but I don’t believe it.

No one is panicking. We are simply supplying arms to a beleaguered nation. It doesn’t matter whether or not we are a strong and stable and focused nation, what matters is that we continue to supply the arms to Ukraine that Ukraine needs. We are indeed extremely focused on doing exactly that. Absolutely no one is wringing their hands because what we as a nation are doing is supplying the arms that Ukraine needs.
Eighty years ago we had a weak leader who said he had secured peace in our time when of course he hadn’t secured peace at all. With a change of leader things changed and people realised that the only way to secure peace was to wage war sadly. I’m not entirely sure what you don’t believe Greyduster, but what I and many others believe is that appeasement doesn’t work, it didn’t in the thirties and it won’t work now. In order to secure peace now we need to ensure that Ukraine has the weapons it needs to defend itself against a power crazy dictator now.

M0nica

*Normandygirl*What was the provocation from Ukraine that led Russia to invade?

Ukraine is an independent state. Anything it does in its own borders, is nobody's business but theirs. They are entirely free to join NATO, the EU and any international organisation they choose. The fact that Russia would rather they didn't, is no reason for it to choose to invade the country.

Provocation is never a reason for invading another country that is not threatening (troops massed on borders, you know the kind of thing - what Russia was doing before it invaded).

Peace negotiations can only be based on Russia taking all its troops out of Ukraine and allowing them to regain their original peaceful autonomy with all the land within their international boundaries under the Ukraine government's governance.

As for the idea that the western leaders would push Zelensky to keep on a war that could lead to the world being destroyed by nuclear weapons is laughable.

Of course it would be the perfect solution to the climate crisis. Is that what you had in mind?

Minsk agreement clearly stated that Ukraine would remain a neutral " buffer zone". That was not adhered to, but I don't blame Ukraine at all. The blame clearly lies with the USA who have been working towards control of Ukraine for decades, for obvious reasons. The leaked audio between S of S Victoria Nuland and US Ambassador Geoffrey Pryatt is quite revealing in just how involved the US has been in Ukrainian domestic politics since 2014.
I have said that Putin's invasion was illegal but the US/UK is not blameless in provoking it in the first place.
As for world leaders not provoking nuclear war, don't be so naive. They are already doing just that and not just with Russia either .

Some posters need to remove their blinkers. Putin will not agree to anything less than he keeps a large part of Ukraine. The Ukrainians don’t want to give away a part of their country. I don’t blame them. Stop trying to blame ‘the west’ Boris Johnson’ America’ and Uncle Tom Cobleigh and all. The problem here is Putin. He will not negotiate to withdraw his army because he claims the Ukraine is part of Russia.

Normandygirl
You say you don’t blame anyone for this conflict, having claimed that Putin acted illegally, but the illegal act is justified! An illegal occupation is justified apparently. That’s exactly what both Putin and Hitler said.

Callistemon21

I think we are being fed Russian propaganda on here.

Indeed Callistemon.

The UK provoked Russia to invade? I think I’ve just fallen down a rabbit hole.

"Do you believe that Putin would keep his side of the deal?
What was the deal?
Subjugating part of Ukraine?"

Do you think Zelensky/US will ?
There was no ceding of Ukraines territory on the table.
Putin agreed to withdraw his demand for denazification, which in effect meant the removal of Zelensky.
Zelensky agreed to renounce Ukraine's NATO application thereby keeping Ukraine a NATO free buffer zone between east and west, as they had promised in the Minsk agreement.
You cannot enter into any peace talks with the idea that one side will not abide by it.
The GFA would never have happened with that attitude.

Normandygirl

I am a bit baffled by your post. Are you making statements of what has been said or assertions of what happened.

Putin has absolutely no right to demand the resignation of Zelensky. Zelensky is the democratically elected leader of Ukraine, a sovereign state. Since Zelensky is Jewish, how can he be a party to any 'nazification' of the country. Putin keeps saying this but has yet to provide any evidence of it.

As you say You cannot enter into any peace talks with the idea that one side will not abide by it. - and that of course is the problem. No one believes that Putin would stick to any peaceplan that restores Ukraine to its natural borders. he is onky interested in peace plans that give him everything he wants.

maddyone

Normandygirl
You say you don’t blame anyone for this conflict, having claimed that Putin acted illegally, but the illegal act is justified! An illegal occupation is justified apparently. That’s exactly what both Putin and Hitler said.

I have never said it was justified, but it was a clear as daylight that if provoked enough by the west that Putin would act.
The sensible thing to do in that situation is to stop the provocation. The US/West did the opposite and then we act outraged that Putin did exactly what he said he would.

The problem here is that ‘the west’ did absolutely nothing to provoke Putin. If anything the west did much less than it should have done when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea. Britain should have acted when Russia murdered Alexander Litvinenko by poisoning him via a cup of tea in a London hotel. Britain again gave a lees than robust response when Russia sent two agents to murder the Skripals with novichow in Salisbury and actually succeeded in murdering a British woman and causing severe injuries to four other people. These two events were clear attacks inside Britain by Russian agents acting illegally and provocatively inside a sovereign state. The Russians also succeeded in murdering 298 people on flight MH17 over Ukraine by shooting the plane down using a surface to air missile which was transported from Russia on the day of the crash.
Neither Ukraine, the west, the UK, America, Germany, the EU, NATO nor any other country or organisation is responsible for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. The responsibility for the illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine is the responsibility of Putin and Putin alone. The only responsibility the west bears is of tolerating illegal acts of aggression for far too long.

Stop arming Ukraine now, intelligence veterans warn Biden.
Article in Conservative Woman by Serena Wylde Feb 13 2023
Well worth a read.

maddyone hear,hear, hear.

The only thing the west did to provoke Putin was - doing nothing. It left him thinking he could get away with whatever he wanted because the west was too supine to stand up to him.

Normandygirl as you seem so knowledgeable, could you list the things the west did to provoke Putin, apart, of courese, of the events that maddyone listed.

ronib, please can we have a link, if you think we should read this article.

www.conservativewoman.co.uk

Is the website. I think it’s second down on the list. Don’t forget it’s the opinion of veteran intelligence analysts.

Even veteran intelligent analysts are not always right.

MOnica on balance, US veteran analysts are presenting a very incisive view of a potentially dangerous world scenario. Russia China axis is not something we want.
I am very disheartened by the Gransnet intelligence analysts on this forum but hey everyone is entitled to their opinion.

ronib

MOnica on balance, US veteran analysts are presenting a very incisive view of a potentially dangerous world scenario. Russia China axis is not something we want.
I am very disheartened by the Gransnet intelligence analysts on this forum but hey everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Your statement is not ‘on balance’ ronib, it’s your opinion. Your opinion doesn’t carry more weight than anybody else’s.

So Gransnet majority says Russia should be driven out of Ukraine whatever the cost however long it takes. With the quantity of arms that are being supplied that is not going to happen, much much more is needed.

US veteran intelligence analysts live a lot further away from the Ukraine than European intelligence analysts. As Putin/Russia attempt to occupy more and more of the countries that used to make up the Soviet Block, they won't reach the US for a long time. European countries will have them on the doorstep in two shakes of a lamb's tail.

Good fences make good neighbours. Do US veteran intelligence analysts approve of arms for any and all US citizens against unspecified aggression, but not for Ukrainian ones against the overt armed aggression of Russia?

I have to go help with my grandchildren so can’t reply you’ll be glad to hear. But have you actually read the article?

Yes I have ronib. I however acknowledge that there are as many expert opinions as there are experts, and that taking your source of intelligence on this from a publication which declares itself as ‘conservative woman’ hardly presents a balanced view of experts. We should all base our own opinions on a wide reading of expert opinions, primarily from people who are currently working in the field, and certainly not from only veteran experts.

Maddyone I am not an appeaser. Show me in any of my posts where I said appeasement would work. I said I didn’t believe that there was no-one inside Russia who thought that getting rid of Putin internally before their country became an all out pariah state with no place in the world was not a good idea! As for the US intelligence veterans, yes, they would fall over themselves to get rid of NATO because it would save the US a shed load of money (us too probably), but the NATO alliance is Europe’s shield and without it, Putin really would have free rein to do what Hitler did in 1940.

Normandygirl

maddyone

Normandygirl
You say you don’t blame anyone for this conflict, having claimed that Putin acted illegally, but the illegal act is justified! An illegal occupation is justified apparently. That’s exactly what both Putin and Hitler said.

I have never said it was justified, but it was a clear as daylight that if provoked enough by the west that Putin would act.
The sensible thing to do in that situation is to stop the provocation. The US/West did the opposite and then we act outraged that Putin did exactly what he said he would.

The sensible thing to do in that situation is to stop the provocation

How do you suggest stopping Putin's provocation?
How do you suggest stopping him marching across Europe?

www.france24.com/en/europe/20220222-moldova-then-georgia-now-ukraine-how-russia-built-bridgeheads-into-post-soviet-space

Katie59 You really are an extremist, because people consider that any kind of peace agreement is unlikely in the near future and in the real world the war will continue. Doesn't mean that we are all red in tooth and claw and cannot wait to escalate it.

Any agreement with Putin will involve Ukraine ceding more territory to Russia, and since Putin's aim, is to rebuild the USSR. He has already occupied Crimea, also part of Ukraine and incorporated it back into Russia. he is encouraging and funding dissident groups in Georgia and Moldova, as well as in Ukraine. then we must assume that any peace agreement will only be, for hi, a stalling process until he can start again.

The reason he risked invading Ukraine was because none of the Western European countries or US did anything when he annexed Crimea, nor when he committed crimes on British soil and in other countries. He thought we were a soft touch who would roll over and just leave UKraine to its fate.

I would like to think that Putin would be defenestrated by a group of his generals, but it needs to be remembered that Putin, like all tin pot dictators surrounds himself withan immense protective shield of security forces and chooses his close confidants for their military incompetance (as the Ukraine shows) and blind loyalty. But there is one big difference between other tin pots and Putin. Most dictators are firebrand army officers, who take over in a coup and tend to descend into a decadent life of money, and cronies and wives who all take their share.

The one of the exceptions is Putin,. He has come up through the intelligence services. In a country known for its excessive connsumption of alcohol, and its association with being a real man. He is teetotal - and has always been so. He is a cold calculating psychopath.The chances of anyone getting close to him in any sense is nil. Getting close enough to be able to overthrow him is, close to next to nil. Not impossible but highly improbable.

Well said MOnica. 👍