Second waves - dealing with the virus part 2 ??

I saw it reported yesterday that even if the current death rate continues, at around 100 a day, by next Spring we will have 80,000 deaths. Since the death rate seems to have plateaued out over the last couple of weeks, and infections are estimated to be running at about 3000 a day, although reported as many fewer, I’m not at all confident that we are actually coming out of this epidemic. However I’m hoping that that this wrong. I read on Facebook something that struck me, it said’ The virus has not gone away, it’s just that there’s room for you in ICU now.’

Exactly Luckygirl

There are too many people, government included who seem to think that if you want something to be so, then it is.
The spread of the virus is still the threat it was, the risks from the virus, roughly likewise, although there are ongoing developments in treatment of the illness , if you are in one of the big hospitals with cutting edge facilities.
I am not advocating hiding behind the sofa but frankly to think that we are out of the woods is cloud cuckoo land. If something was too risky two months ago, it probably still is. Countries with stricter lockdown measures in the first instance are without question coping better. And don’t anybody quote Sweden because their statistics are frankly terrifying especially in the more densely populated areas.
Where the have been second waves (whatever Jane 10*’s quoted Doctor/scientist says) they have been nipped in the bud by testing, tracking and *quarantining .
Are we ready for that? I doubt it .

But these illnesses are not infectious! - that is the point. That is why we do not have lockdowns over cancer or heart disease!

The death rate for coronavirus would have been vastly higher, dwarfing those from other diseases, if no action had been taken.

There isn't always despair! Beware Urmstongran- people don't seem to want to hear good news!
The numbers of people with Covid 19 are absolutely dwarfed by the numbers of people with cancer, heart disease and other critical illnesses. It's time we got things in proportion and let these unfortunate people have the treatment they need so badly.
To give you some idea of the seriousness of this, there are an average of 165,000 deaths from cancer each year and 170,000from heart disease. Compare those with the Covid mortality rate!

Love your posts Urmston they always give us hope where there's been despair. Enjoy your stay in Spain. (Are you planning to come back? I wouldn't bother)!

Dr. Ellie Cannon says this morning she’s sticking her neck out here by saying she doesn’t think there will be a second wave.

Be great if she’s right.

Many scientists think the virus is weakening and there won’t be a second wave. Just whack-a-mole of small clusters n the next few weeks.

Growstuff, Yes I do. It’s not perfect I will admit. But I certainly wouldn’t want to live in a country where disagreement with government policy was a suicide mission. Even Gransnet would not be allowed in so many countries.

You may feel you are not listened to here but you are allowed to express your opinion without fear. By the government that is.

Apologies I should have said Hubei Province.
Even so, Wuhan itself has the population of a small country.

PamelaJ1

Growstuff, you can have total control over your population when you run a totalitarian regime.
When you have a democracy you can’t. Our system is not set up to run like China’s. I, for one, am very glad.

Do you really think the UK still has a meaningful democracy?

In any case, the flaw with democracy is that it doesn't protect minorities.

Sparklefizz

Wuhan was just a city, not a whole country. You can't have a whole country in lockdown - no food, no emergency services, no utilities.

Yes, in theory you could have a whole country in lockdown, not that I'm seriously suggesting it. I was pointing out that the only way to defeat Covid-19 is by abolishing all human contact. Denied a host, the virus would very soon die out.

In theory, it would be possible for all essential services (and I mean essential, not what some people thought they couldn't live without) to be provided by a limited number of people who were very regularly tested, provided with PPE and instructed (in most cases) to keep their distance.

But you can still do your best to protect your population. France and Italy are both democracies and had much stricter lockdowns than the UK's half-hearted effort.

There were just too many loopholes and too many people thinking that somehow they were different from everybody else and their needs more special.

Growstuff, you can have total control over your population when you run a totalitarian regime.
When you have a democracy you can’t. Our system is not set up to run like China’s. I, for one, am very glad.

Wuhan was just a city, not a whole country. You can't have a whole country in lockdown - no food, no emergency services, no utilities.

It is impossible to have a complete lockdown.

China tried it in Wuhan for 76 days and then had further outbreaks.

There has never been a proper lockdown and I'm tired of repeating it.

maddyone

If you’re correct growstuff we can look forward to a spike in infections then, anything from one to three weeks hence. But don’t forget that from exposure to development of symptoms varies enormously from as little as two to five days, up to three or even more weeks. The usual pattern though is that development of symptoms happens in the first two weeks after exposure. There were people congregating on beaches and at beauty spots long ago during the lockdown, and media clambering together long ago during the lockdown, and the riots and protests started two full weeks ago now, and shops opened two weeks ago on Monday, and so I think it’s worrying but understandable that the curve of infections and deaths has now steadied. We can look forward to a rise in infections, but hope for the opposite.

I was really thinking more of the levelling off (and possible rise in) the death rate.

I was working on the assumption that people are infected for a couple of days before they symptoms and then often seem well for a week before the real physically damaging symptoms appear.

I know some people have died very quickly, but I think I read somewhere it's more likely to be about three weeks from initial infection to death.

It wouldn't be rocket science to make the whole thing go away. Just quarantine everybody 100% for two weeks and the virus would have no host.

Obviously, that's not realistic in practice, but it's not helped by people who really don't seem to be able to see what an appalling job the government is doing and who continue to find loopholes for themselves and not to understand the big picture. Too many "I'm alright Jacks".

BBbevan

Callistemon we very nearly bought a house overlooking the sea at Ogmore. But DH said “ There will be ‘oiks‘ on that grass in the summer”. He was proved right.

We were the oiks last year!

A sedate group of seven pensioners, sorry five pensioners two still working in their 60s and 70s, sitting on our chairs on the grass enjoying the view then having a walk on the beach!
Took our own flasks then went to the pub for lunch.

If you’re correct growstuff we can look forward to a spike in infections then, anything from one to three weeks hence. But don’t forget that from exposure to development of symptoms varies enormously from as little as two to five days, up to three or even more weeks. The usual pattern though is that development of symptoms happens in the first two weeks after exposure. There were people congregating on beaches and at beauty spots long ago during the lockdown, and media clambering together long ago during the lockdown, and the riots and protests started two full weeks ago now, and shops opened two weeks ago on Monday, and so I think it’s worrying but understandable that the curve of infections and deaths has now steadied. We can look forward to a rise in infections, but hope for the opposite.

So many conspiracy theories! It's better than the telly or at least it's more exciting than the government, being made up of humans, doing their best at a difficult time to the howls of derision from those who want everything and everyone to be magically better.
That's life. If only everyone was perfect. Nobody would disobey guidelines, governments would be made up of saints with limitless cash and we'd all be happy. Ah well. At least we can offload on GN.

This country is being gaslit by Cummings and Johnson, all the encouragement to go forth and enjoy ourselves 'safely' but giving 10 days notice so that it all builds up to some gross celebration next weekend. Meanwhile, my family have stayed home, stayed safe, shopped only when absolutely necesary and for food only, but my son has to return to work, travelling by train, from next week. Thus, my sensible, law abiding son will be exposed to infection because a few people want to get pissed. Great, thanks for that. Then, as the inevitable happens, and the rate rises, the newspapers can release all the photographs and show how it was all 'our fault' that we are dying of covid19. I don't know what makes me angrier (1) the inefficiency and lies of this government (2) the fact that many people accept this or (3) the government know some of us have rumbled them, but they don't care. Also, am I the only one who finds the throwing open the doors, lifting lockdown policy in Sweden a little sinister? As I remember it, the 'science' of eugenics is Swedish in origin. Will check.

The deaths are probably the result of something which happened earlier. The government has stopped publishing exact details of deaths, so it's difficult to know when or how the victims were infected.

maddyone The levelling off had already started before the BLM protests, beach crowds or shops opening. It started about two weeks ago, so was probably the result of something which happened about three weeks ago.

Since then, we've had all sorts of relaxations of lockdown, seemingly haphazard. I think many people have just given up.

I suggest it is not!

I’m worried about the levelling off of the downward curve of infections and deaths that growstuff mentioned earlier today. This is very worrying to me. Is it coincidental that rioting, crowds pushing and shoving to get into shops ( think the Nike store featured on the news last week) crowds congregating on beaches, street parties, press congregating outside DC’s house etc that the rate has levelled off, following these occurrences?