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Will it really happen?

(95 Posts)
Riverwalk Sat 25-Jun-16 19:33:48

Brexit, that is.

Am I alone in thinking that, for whatever reason, it just won't come about? hmm

A week is a long time in politics - we've had just one day.

annsixty Sat 25-Jun-16 19:40:22

Oh how much I hope you are right.

JessM Sat 25-Jun-16 19:40:35

I think millions of us are having these flashes of "it can't be true" "how can we change this" and so on. But alas, alack and woe is me, Cameron has done an incredibly stupid thing in putting a complex subject like this to the electorate without predicting that his old mates Johnson and Gove would bring the full force of their unscrupulous and irresponsible journalism to bear on the campaign. They lied and lied and won the day. I fear now they don't have a clue how they can get us out of this Eton mess. One thing is for sure - there will be a separation from the EU. And a long, difficult period for the UK.
This is an excellent article on the tactics of Gove and Johnson. Who are presumably now thinking "Oh Shit! What the xxxxx are we going to do now?"

JessM Sat 25-Jun-16 19:40:58

Oops - here's the article

Luckygirl Sat 25-Jun-16 19:45:59

Well - one of the factors influencing my thinking was that Cameron was very clear that he would stay put whatever the result of the referendum, and if it was Leave he would be there to lead the negotiations and provide continuity because: "I think it's very important that the individual careers of individual politicians don't get caught up in this question."

What a lying toad!

BJ, NF and MG are not suitable people to carry this forward. But I think Cameron (for all that I do not like his politics) would have been a better person to deal with this.

annsixty Sat 25-Jun-16 20:14:49

Yet another miscalculation of our expectations.

jinglbellsfrocks Sat 25-Jun-16 20:20:58

"this Eton mess" Lol grin

whitewave Sat 25-Jun-16 20:22:35

Funnily enough I've just put the phone down from DR who said exactly that. She can't believe it will happen

jinglbellsfrocks Sat 25-Jun-16 20:23:48

It will come about, but hopefully our lot will not allow themselves to be given the bum's rush, but will take their time and negotiate for a good trading deal with them. I think Angela Merkel will be sympathetic to our Dave.

JessM Sat 25-Jun-16 20:30:20

Someone was saying on R4 earlier that we don't have the staff to deal with the trade negotiations that we need. it occurred to me a few weeks ago - the thought that we don't have much expertise in this area... Apparently we only have about 20 suitably experienced civil servants whereas we need, well, 100 or more. Because it is not, of course, ever the PM or member of the cabinet that is doing the negotiations. They should set the objectives and tell the civil servants what they want to achieve and then sit in the background waiting to be consulted on progress. And then swan in at the end and sign something in front of the cameras.
And trade negotiations are a specialist area I would think. You'd need knowledge as well as the usual set of diplomatic skills and negotiating skills.
So whoever is in charge needs to set clear objectives and agree any fall-back position with the team.
Cameron has shown hopeless judgement throughout this process, from the moment he agreed that a referendum on such a complex issue was going to be a manifesto commitment right through to his unimpressive performance in the campaign.

whitewave Sat 25-Jun-16 20:34:40

If anyone had watched that video by the law lecturer they would have understood how impossibly complicated it was going to be

Ana Sat 25-Jun-16 20:38:05

Haven't any of you watched the news today? It's going to take at least a couple of years to sort everything out, Juncker & Co. are just blustering.

JessM Sat 25-Jun-16 22:56:00

Well of course its going to take years Ana - nobody ever said it wouldn't. We are intertwined with the EU in so many ways, there is an awful lot to decide on - and that is just the decree nisi. Then there's the arrangements for maintenance and access to the kids - another long long series of negotiations that could take many years.
If free movement goes then there is the thorny issue of the border between the two parts of Ireland - that alone is a huge problem to resolve.

In the meantime business confidence will inevitably fall, the creation of new jobs will falter and the deficit will inevitably increase as tax-take falls.

The first thing that is likely to change is that the French will rescind the Toquet agreement and 6 months later the camps in Calais will start to close as refugees and migrants from all over Europe board the ferries. Embittered Remain supporters will buy them tickets.
In the following year - around 2018 - there will also be an influx of EU nationals intent on coming here for a while before they have to start applying for visas. It's going to be interesting, that's for sure.
I'd like to believe that somehow we will not do this stupid thing but what would that take? Boris and Gove, currently horrified about the unexpected result, may well be deciding they do not want to stand for party leader. Who on earth in their right mind would like to preside over this? It's a bit like taking nominal control of a cruise ship knowing that it is too late to avoid an iceberg. But politicians being the species they are - someone will volunteer or have their arm twisted to stand for party leader. And then parliament - which is overwhelmingly pro-EU - refuses to accept the referendum result, passes a vote of no confidence in the government... and the period of uncertainly rumbles on until another general election has happened and returns a new set of MPs who could possibly claim that they have a fresh mandate from the public to stay in the EU.
I think I'm going to stop fantasising and go to my bed.

whitewave Sat 25-Jun-16 23:02:46

Sounds plausible jess

peaceatlast Sun 26-Jun-16 09:30:01

Sadly, I think what's done is done now. So many people making a 'protest' vote without any real thought to the consequences and now shocked and horrified that they got what they fancied they wished for.

I strongly believe that there should have to be a 60% majority for something as major as this life changing referendum.

Even more radical, maybe people should have to sit an exam in politics before they are allowed to vote. Almost anyone can vote but not all have the nouse to use it with intelligence, unfortunately.

moxeyns Sun 26-Jun-16 09:31:01

And the Leavers want us to pick ourselves up and be jolly together. Sheesh.

JessM Sun 26-Jun-16 09:43:12

And now the PLP is intent on a leadership challenge with Benn and Alexander leaving the shadow cabinet. I do hope the voice of reason will prevail when MPs get back together in the morning.
If you have a Labour MP, write to them today on

Or email them - my MPs email is [email protected]

And sign the support Corbyn petition - this is not a mess of his creation and not his to sort out. Party members and supporters don't want this, surely.

Skweek1 Sun 26-Jun-16 09:45:24

DH has pointed out that nothing can happen unless Article 50 is invoked to formally start our withdrawal. Cam has made it clear that he isn't going to do this - up to his successor. Although Europe is posturing (understandably), I don't think they really want us to go (Germany will have to pay out 25% of the money). We've had our fun, made our feelings felt and now we've discovered the truth that the grass may not be any greener after all. DH suspects the whole thing may turn out to be a cynical political ploy between Bojo and Cam, but let's hope that we can sort out this whole sorry mess before it's too late. Anyone else agree? Or do people really want what they voted for? confused sad angry

angie95 Sun 26-Jun-16 09:50:27

Didn't Cameron, long to change his mind, about leading,, why is it that these "leaders of men" don't stay to lead. or pass the gauntlet? why do they just lie and run! I want these leaders to talk to the everyday people in not a patronising way, but a way that everyone understands the consequences,of what we are actually voting for, because come the next election they will want votes, and to secure them, they need to stop lying and hiding behind words in Latin, and man up! because at the moment, I don't trust any of them,,

Jalima Sun 26-Jun-16 09:52:32

The alternative scenario is that other countries hold their own referendum, vote out with a narrow margin, we all spend two years working out how to rescind a lot of legislation and proceed with a looser European trade alliance.

marionk Sun 26-Jun-16 09:53:10

They all lied, slung mud and generally behaved appallingly. I have yet to listen to anybody I trust, but at least we know who they are, not just some equally untrustworthy but faceless MEP.

Jalima Sun 26-Jun-16 09:54:26

And proceed with trading within the EU and the EU with the rest of the world in the meantime., whilst the trading agreements are tweaked.

sillup Sun 26-Jun-16 09:55:52

I completely agree with Whitewave. I don't know how anyone who watched the Liverpool Law lecturer speak could have voted to leave. It even changed my sister's mind. A real no brainer. I really worry about the repercussions and more specifically the unintended consequences which there always are.

jinglbellsfrocks Sun 26-Jun-16 09:56:51

I read/heard somewhere that the negotiations could go on for a couple of years, and then the invoking of clause 57 will happen almost overnight.

WilmaKnickersfit Sun 26-Jun-16 09:57:24

Cameron resigning now instead of stepping down later as planned gives the government time to get to grips with the situation. It has to be a deliberate change of plan because Leave won the referendum, plus he's reported to have said he doesn't see why he should do all the hard work. Don't blame him.