Why we are still in deep trouble

Does anyone, anywhere have the real figures?

I'm beginning to doubt it. 40% of this and 10% of that means nothing at all.

Why is it that in England (and I mean England not the UK) every death of a person who tests positive for CV is logged as a death from CV? My neighbours mum had terminal cancer with only weeks to live. She was in hospital where she died and tested positive for CV. The cause of death was named as CV except it wasn't was it ? For very personal reasons my neighbour is fighting the authorities to have it changed. This is only one example

The economy needs normality now

If people think that the economy is ever going to return to 'normality' before we have a reliable vaccine (and probably after, too) they are not facing reality.

Large swathes of the very lucrative culture and entertainment industries are in deep trouble and are unlikely to recover because of their very nature - large audiences, indoor venues. Hospitality will struggle for the same sort of reasons. Many small businesses with no cash to back them have struggled or already failed.

There is going to be a huge rise in unemployment once the government support schemes finish, could well be up to 6 million.

And on top of that we'll have the minimal or no deal Brexit shock.

No 'normal' for a very long time...

There is going to be a huge rise in unemployment once the government support schemes finish, could well be up to 6 million

Exactly MazieD but there are still a lot of people who have the "I'm alright Jack" attitude. My own region is set to be one of the worst hit.

gillybob

Does anyone, anywhere have the real figures?

I'm beginning to doubt it. 40% of this and 10% of that means nothing at all.

Why is it that in England (and I mean England not the UK) every death of a person who tests positive for CV is logged as a death from CV? My neighbours mum had terminal cancer with only weeks to live. She was in hospital where she died and tested positive for CV. The cause of death was named as CV except it wasn't was it ? For very personal reasons my neighbour is fighting the authorities to have it changed. This is only one example

Don't ask gillybob
You will get your knuckles rapped and be accused of being a supporter of this Government

When in fact you (and I) are querying a possible anomaly in compiling statistics, even just in the UK .

I don't think maddyone is lumping all young people in Manchester together as huge drinkers, but she is right that the drinking culture is indicative of today's lifestyle excesses, particularly amongst the younger generation. I am aware it's the same in highly populated Hackney and Stratford where the infection rate is rising and where mumerous people are out in the pubs and bars on a nightly basis. I used to go to the pub in London, 35 - 40 years ago, but only once a fortnight because I just didn't have the cash to splash, even though I had a good job in banking. Today people want to go out partying as often as they can, spend as much as they can and meet as many random people as they can. There's no point trying to keep workers safe when they are behaving like this in their spare time.

...*but she is right that the drinking culture is indicative of today's lifestyle excesses, particularly amongst the younger generation.*

I thought it had been established that the younger generation don't drink as much as their parents did.

I know my three don't!

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/11/young-people-drunk-acohol-millenials

"Don't ask gillybob
You will get your knuckles rapped and be accused of being a supporter of this Government^

When in fact you (and I) are querying a possible anomaly in compiling statistics, even just in the UK

I would go so far as to take away the word "possible" Calli

Mine are not part of this mindset either Oopsminty, but I know that in a social setting that they are quite prone to binge drinking and parting with a lot of money.
There is a culture of drinking in which excessive alcohol consumption is encouraged amongst young people as part of group belonging. I dislike catching the tube home now after the theatre not because I encounter drunk people, that isn't new, but because of the huge throngs of people who collectively have no inhibitions and show no consideration. This translates into their attitude towards the spreading of the virus.

You could also "blame" some of the grannies on GN who thought that hugging their grandchildren and having (allegedly) socially distanced meetings didn't count.

Sorry, but there are a few people in glasshouses, including those who think it's all been grossly exaggerated, in all groups.

The way people have started blaming "others" is really quite unpleasant. It says a lot about the blamers.

Oopsminty

...*but she is right that the drinking culture is indicative of today's lifestyle excesses, particularly amongst the younger generation.*

I thought it had been established that the younger generation don't drink as much as their parents did.

I know my three don't!

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/11/young-people-drunk-acohol-millenials

Did you know that some of the biggest "problem" drinking is amongst the more affluent middle aged and retirees? They do it at home - out of sight - that's the difference.

I notice it particularly because I don't drink alcohol at all and I'm given strange looks whenever I'm invited anywhere by anybody of my own age.

Ellianne

I don't think maddyone is lumping all young people in Manchester together as huge drinkers, but she is right that the drinking culture is indicative of today's lifestyle excesses, particularly amongst the younger generation. I am aware it's the same in highly populated Hackney and Stratford where the infection rate is rising and where mumerous people are out in the pubs and bars on a nightly basis. I used to go to the pub in London, 35 - 40 years ago, but only once a fortnight because I just didn't have the cash to splash, even though I had a good job in banking. Today people want to go out partying as often as they can, spend as much as they can and meet as many random people as they can. There's no point trying to keep workers safe when they are behaving like this in their spare time.

There are a number heavy drinkers where I live in wealthy, white, old middle England.

gillybob

Does anyone, anywhere have the real figures?

I'm beginning to doubt it. 40% of this and 10% of that means nothing at all.

Why is it that in England (and I mean England not the UK) every death of a person who tests positive for CV is logged as a death from CV? My neighbours mum had terminal cancer with only weeks to live. She was in hospital where she died and tested positive for CV. The cause of death was named as CV except it wasn't was it ? For very personal reasons my neighbour is fighting the authorities to have it changed. This is only one example

Did you see what was written on the death certificate?

Callistemon

gillybob

Does anyone, anywhere have the real figures?

I'm beginning to doubt it. 40% of this and 10% of that means nothing at all.

Why is it that in England (and I mean England not the UK) every death of a person who tests positive for CV is logged as a death from CV? My neighbours mum had terminal cancer with only weeks to live. She was in hospital where she died and tested positive for CV. The cause of death was named as CV except it wasn't was it ? For very personal reasons my neighbour is fighting the authorities to have it changed. This is only one example

Don't ask gillybob
You will get your knuckles rapped and be accused of being a supporter of this Government

When in fact you (and I) are querying a possible anomaly in compiling statistics, even just in the UK .

I've already explained. I saw an interview with a statistician about this. She said that it does need to change, so that England is consistent with Scotland, but at the moment it hasn't made any significant difference to the total figures.

There were people, especially at the beginning, who weren't counted as Covid-19 deaths because they weren't tested. If anything, there have been more Covid 19 deaths than less.

Out of 62,000 excess deaths I doubt if a few registrations of death 'with' covid, rather than death 'from' covid are really going to make a huge difference to the statistics.

I'm not sure what people who raise this are trying to prove. The fact is that we have had 62,000 more deaths than 'normal' between April and July and that our excess deaths figure is the highest in Europe.

So we either have a exceptionally susceptible population or something has been badly wrong with the handling of the pandemic.

Because of differences in the way cases and deaths are recorded in different countries, the most accurate basis for comparing how well or badly any nation has fared is the measure of "excess deaths".

This compares this years' monthly deaths with the average for the same month over previous years.

Paradoxically we may sometimes find that a month's "excess deaths" are negative for a number of reasons - eg lockdown limiting other infections or the fact that the some of the most vulnerable who would have been expected to die that month have already died, either from covid or lack of treatment for other conditions.

Nevertheless, scrutiny of excess deaths over a period is the most important basis for analysis and assessment of the performance of governments in their response to the pandemic.

Did you see what was written on the death certificate?

Of course I didn't growstuff what a ridiculous question . But my neighbour did !

It was her mum not mine. I trust she was telling me the truth.

But it is important that deaths are recorded correctly and we cannot simply proportion a death to CV just because someone tested positive at the time of death.

Nobody can afford to binge drink in my area and the nearest pub is so small you couldn't swing a cat in it so social distancing would prove difficult anyway. I'm glad to say Seemingly it's the middle-classes who are helping spread the virus ? They're the ones with the money to go out and spend it-----foolishly.

As the area goes, we haven't had many cases ( touch wood ) even though it's a seaside place, but neither have we had the weather to encourage the crowds, so I suppose that's in its favour too. It's quite well spaced out, no crowded towns etc.

Of course we're still in deep trouble and I fear we will be for a long, long while to come. With all the different advice and reports coming from various scientists, virologists, and statisticians etc., there comes a point where information overload starts to muddy the waters. Let alone listening to those in government who are selectively choosing to have their own agenda. It's not a case of one group blaming another, it's a case of sifting through the data and trying to make some sense of it.

gillybob
My friend did see her brothers death certificate where the cause was covid. He didn't go in with covid and he never had it while he was in there.

I live in Trafford growstuff What about Trafford? It's a white, relatively wealthy area, but has one of the highest infection rates in Greater Manchester

Hmm.
Huge areas of deprivation and mixed ethnicities (just demonstrating ‘not white’ nothing else) in Partington and Old Trafford.

IRAN has dramatically under-reported the extent of its coronavirus epidemic, according to leaked government figures that show almost three times as many Covid-19 deaths than Tehran has officially acknowledged.

I don’t honestly think that any country will have recorded Covid accurately. In fact I would like to see normal death rate alongside current death rates. Mumsnet has a good thread on the numbers.
I am of the lies ,damned lies and statistics school of thought.

Just interested Urmstongran, didn't the Chief Medical Officer for Trafford say something along the lines that it was the young people who were spreading the virus locally because they were doing things that older people don't do, (ie mixing and probably drinking with random friends). Not blaming anyone, just saying.