So what would GransNetters do?

I think all unvaccinated patients should be separated from other patients regardless of what their medical problem may be.

M0nica

Todays figures show cases of COVID being far higher than this time last year, but hospital admissions and deaths being far lower, especially among the elderly, who are almost all triple jabbed.

I simply do not understand where these much vaunted science advisors are getting their forecasts from, they seem to be on target for numbers, but their doom laden forecasts on hospital admissions and deaths, currently, are not backed up by the actual figures.

Most of us are taking a reasoned approach to current conditions and socialising with care and with only immediate family and friends.

Lokdown is unnecessary.

Which figures are you looking at? Today's PHE statistics show that both hospitalisations and deaths increased compared with 7 days ago.

The so-called "doom laden forecasts" of scientific advisers are usually worst case scenarios, but thankfully the public itself tends to change its own behaviour, so the forecasts are not usually reached.

M0nica

I think all unvaccinated patients should be separated from other patients regardless of what their medical problem may be.

Why?

The majority of patients admitted to hospital with Covid in the four weeks up to 28 November had had at least two doses of vaccination. The percentage has increased from earlier in the year for the obvious reason that more people have been vaccinated.

fullfact.org/health/dr-hilary-lorraine-kelly-90-percent/

People reduce their risk of being hospitalised or being very seriously ill, if they are vaccinated, but I do wish people would get facts right. Misinterpretation of facts plays into the hands of people who argue against vaccination.

growstuff November isn't relevant. It was almost entirely people with the Delta variant of COVID. . Omicron had barely got started. The majority of cases now are omicron and I am quoting what a hospital consultant said on Radio 4 this morning.

The evidence I gave does anything but 'play into the hands of those who argue against vaccination'. It is a strong argument FOR vaccination.

Your elderly out-of-date figures do play into their hands, however.

Why are hospitalizations and deaths all of a sudden being compared with 7 days ago? Maybe if we compare with 1, 2 or even 3 days ago there is no increase?

M0nica

growstuff November isn't relevant. It was almost entirely people with the Delta variant of COVID. . Omicron had barely got started. The majority of cases now are omicron and I am quoting what a hospital consultant said on Radio 4 this morning.

The evidence I gave does anything but 'play into the hands of those who argue against vaccination'. It is a strong argument FOR vaccination.

Your elderly out-of-date figures do play into their hands, however.

I quoted the latest objective statistics available. One hospital consultant's testimony is anecdotal.

The number of deaths from Omicron are rising - there is evidence for that. Whoever the hospital consultant was, he/she couldn't possibly know how vaccinations affect those with Omicron.

Josieann

Why are hospitalizations and deaths all of a sudden being compared with 7 days ago? Maybe if we compare with 1, 2 or even 3 days ago there is no increase?

They're not being compared with statistics 7 days ago all of a sudden. It's one way they've been reported for months.

The reason is that figures reported are usually lower over the weekend for administrative reasons, so comparing (for example) Sunday or Wednesday figures from one week to the next gives a clearer idea of trends.

Usually they use a seven day moving average, in order to oron out the weekly variations.

M0nica

Usually they use a seven day moving average, in order to oron out the weekly variations.

Statisticians use both - and have been doing for months.

growstuff

M0nica

Usually they use a seven day moving average, in order to oron out the weekly variations.

Statisticians use both - and have been doing for months.

I couldn't help but notice that the BBC has recently been very inconsistent in this respect. It either confuses me, or makes me suspicious.

I'd just give up growstuff . I have. We're not doing evidence based arguments, we're doing "some bloke off the telly said it so it must be true"

Josieann

growstuff

M0nica

Usually they use a seven day moving average, in order to oron out the weekly variations.

Statisticians use both - and have been doing for months.

I couldn't help but notice that the BBC has recently been very inconsistent in this respect. It either confuses me, or makes me suspicious.

What on earth is confusing about comparing the same day each week?

The new rules for Scotland sound sensible for us in England to I think but I wouldn't go further than that at this point.

I've opted out of two social meetings recently as they were with people I didn't need or particularly want to see

Well V3ra I think there’s a fair bit of this going on these days. An easy cop out from meeting up with people you don’t want to see.

A handy excuse this next month or so to swerve socialising - not because it’s against the rules (it isn’t), not because it’s unsafe (it isn’t providing people are vaccinated & have taken necessary precautions and done their own risk assessment and possibly done a LFT) but just because they can without causing offence - a handy hook to peg people’s ‘get outs’ onto this winter.

that hosp consultant was talking about Covid patients in ICU.
the vast majority of which are unvaccinated. in his hosp.
others are quoting figures that the majority of covid patients in hosp are vaccinated.
so that is two different groups. both statements are true.

This article from Sky News yesterday explains the hospitalisation issue well, and (importantly) why the experts don’t know yet what will happen over the next few weeks.
news.sky.com/story/omicron-what-do-covid-hospitalisation-figures-in-london-tell-us-about-how-severe-the-new-variant-is-12501451